The latest US CPI data clearly indicates that inflation in the US is not yet defeated. With interest rate cuts anticipated further down the line here is our perspective on EM’s
As the Head of Research, Emil's expertise encompasses a diverse background mainly in Economics and agricultural economics, further bolstered by his extensive experience in Finance. Professionally he has primarily thrived as a trader for a family office, gaining valuable insights into the financial landscape. In addition to his practical involvement in the Markets, Emil's linguistic abilities as a polyglot enhance his role as the editor of the weekly EM by EM series. Moreover, he plays a pivotal role as the guiding econ/finance anchor on the "Watch Series"
Something for your Espresso: Prices of Pain
CPI flared up yesterday and markets bleed with it taking out consensus bets ruthlessly. We are still afloat and offer our latest reflections below
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Trade Alert: Booking some profits
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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Labour Watch: Why you should pay attention to the Border
A lot has been said about the Non Farm Payroll report last week yet we believe certain aspects have still largely flown under the radar. Read which below
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EM by EM #42 China could do with a cold Turkey
While all the hype in EM is about China these days, we are healthy skeptics. We’d like to see Beijing adopt a more structural approach to truly win us over, similar to what they’re doing in Turkey
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Trade Alert: Playing Steep vs Safe
We have taken on a new FX position and have pinned another to the watchlist. See details below
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear
Buy the fear and sell the hype is our overarching mantra in EM these days. Read how below!
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5 Things We Watch: Iran, China, Crypto, Inflation and the Fed
Macro is on the move and we have diverging trends in inflation. Find our brief overview of the five themes that move markets the most this week in global macro.
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Evergrande Nugget: Popping the World’s Largest Asset Bubble
Evergrande has now formally transitioned from a state of de facto default to a legal liquidation. How will the markets and Beijing act to the latest ruling?
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps
As we conclude a busy midweek with loads of matter to digest in a global macro we will this week attempt to make an odd synthesis between the recent events in China its importance for price action and how we look at it going forward and Trump’s success in New Hampshire and how we are currently framing the 2016 campaign in the context of the EM space
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China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?
The drivers of the recent sell-off in Chinese equities mirror the weakness of the Real Estate sector and the two are inherently interlinked. The question is whether the leadership will respond to the sell-off in the same way they did during the Real Estate crisis last year. In such case, fundamentals will remain unadressed. Read our takeaway below
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Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
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EM by EM #39: All roads out of China lead to goods disinflation
Geopolitics and fiscal excess are fueling price pressures in global macro. But there’s one actor that could combine the two and undermine the inflationary momentum
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Something for your Espresso: Waller’s Way
Waller’s speech yesterday underlines the hawkish risk to current market pricing and we are not surprised by it. Read our Morning reflections below!
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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EM by EM #38: Inflation returning with a vengeance?
As the US CPI is set to maintain its resilience, several sectors are contending with margin pressure due to the slower decline in costs. In the world of emerging markets, the soft landing appears to be losing steam, running on fumes. Meanwhile, finance ministers are once again in the limelight as 2024 unfolds as a pivotal election year globally
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Something for your Espresso: Powell and the unrelenting labour market
What caused Powell to pivot in late 2023 and what will the impact be in 2024 as inflation risks running hotter? Read our morning post below
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Portfolio Watch: Chasing ships and fading narratives
Geopolitics is at the front seat of financial markets these days and the data prints we are given are anything but conclusive. Read how we start off the year below!
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EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war
The upcoming Taiwan election is just one chapter in the larger narrative of US-Sino relations, which is poised to return to the forefront of financial markets in the 2024 US election year. Will Taipei further contribute to the rising tension?
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EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023
We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
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EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the beast alive
With investor sentiment through the floor in China, we take a look at the policy tool kit for 2024. Is China set for a rebound or will the sentiment remain stuck in the abyss?
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Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the name of the Game
With Central bank bonanza week in the rearview mirror, we reflect on the state of current pricing and reveal how we like to be positioned. Read our full Portfolio Watch below!
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Something for your Espresso: Relief for Asia on solid footing?
Is Powell’s setup for cuts a sufficient cause for risk-on in Asia? Mixed bag in our view. Read our Morning reflections here
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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
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Something for your Espresso: Middle East tension not done
Trouble outside the Bab al-Mandab straight this morning warrants some reflections. Read ours below!
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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
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EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?
Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.
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