Finally, markets have awoken to the Chinese stimulus. Read here for our Morning takeaways on the matter
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As the Head of Research, Emil's expertise encompasses a diverse background mainly in Economics and agricultural economics, further bolstered by his extensive experience in Finance. Professionally he has primarily thrived as a trader for a family office, gaining valuable insights into the financial landscape. In addition to his practical involvement in the Markets, Emil's linguistic abilities as a polyglot enhance his role as the editor of the weekly EM by EM series. Moreover, he plays a pivotal role as the guiding econ/finance anchor on the "Watch Series"
Trade Alert: Dipping our toes in Europe
We anticipate that the economic cycle will defy current market expectations in Europe. Read below to see how we place our chips
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Something for your Espresso: From the fuse to the Bomb
The recent pressure on bonds could soon be compounded by additional external sources of stress. While economies may be undergoing decoupling, the world of finance remains highly interconnected on a global scale. Read our morning post below
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Macro Nugget: Why Argentina won’t dollarise
Massa takes the first round but war is not over. We provide our view on the state of affairs in Argentina from a risk-taking perspective
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Something for your Espresso: Coping with Pressure
Middle East unrest, Yen weakness and CCP worries- all interlinked with the soap opera on the Hill in the eyes of the market. Read our monday daily below
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Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic
A volatile week with plenty on the plate for investors. Biden’s push for war funding while Capitol Hill remains in gridlock. How are the bets stacking up? Dive into our weekly positioning watch below to find out
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Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
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Something for your Espresso: Ueda and the volatile Uninversion
From a slide to a climb: the yield curve seems increasingly poised to slope positive in the near future. Good news? Well… Read our morning thoughts below
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EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing
It is increasingly impossible to dissect what is going on in financial markets from what is taking place on the Geopolitical scene. Read below for our full take on the latest events
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Something for your Espresso: Bend or Break
Restocking and US consumers keeping up relentlessly. We think it is bound to come to an end soon. Read here why
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Something for your Espresso: Full Speed in the Fast Lane
US Congress, Middleast, Japan, China, Europe… Plenty of stuff to keep track on at the moment. Read our latest reflections below
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Something for your Espresso: Can Stonks cope with the pressure?
Stocks seem to hold up in the storm. But what will it take for a capitulation? Read our daily below
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Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?
There is no shortage of depressing data coming out of the UK in recent quarters. The question is whether we’ve seen the worst of stagflation. Maybe, but be careful what you wish for
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Something for your Espresso: 3 Risks for the Winter
We’re back at it this fine monday with 3 semi depressing macro-risks which all have one common denominator: Energy. Read them below
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Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War
In the wake of this tragic situation that is still unfolding, investors are grappling with the need to understand and navigate the turmoil. See our main Positioning takeaways here
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Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
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EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
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Something for your Espresso: Dancing on Graves?
Godot may have finally arrived in China, but the sobering reality is that we are still in the dark about the specifics, and there are doubts about whether the impending stimulus will be sufficient. Please find our morning report below for more details.
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Macro Nugget: Fluctuations and the Perception of Gravity
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
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Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?
As we review the events of this eventful week, it unfortunately appears to conclude with a tragic development, as we find ourselves reporting on the potential beginning of yet another conflict.
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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
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EM by EM #24 Tightening the noose on EM
Oil prices have collapsed in recent days undermining one side of the USD/Oil wreckingball. Good news for EM’s generally? We offer our takeaway below and how we prefer to play it
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Something for your Espresso: Goldilocks vs Deindustrialisation?
We hit the bullseye with the ISM Manufacturing data, but the upcoming weeks may present challenges as Capitol Hill gears up for another political spectacle. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the European situation may be less dramatic, but they find themselves in a tight spot nonetheless
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Macro Nugget: The Eurozone horserace
The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
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Something for your Espresso: Yesterday’s War, US ISM & McCarthy’s rabbit
McCarthy appears to have pulled a rabbit out of the hat at the eleventh hour. With the US ISM data released today, we present our Monday morning insights
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Portfolio Watch: The last gasp of a dying man?
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
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Something for your Espresso: Disturbance in the force
Numerous unsettling macroeconomic forces are at play these days, and we’ll discuss some of them in today’s morning report
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EM by EM #23 Playing the least dirty laundry vs the dirtiest
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
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Trade Alert: We engage in a trade to profit on rising energy prices
We back our words with action as we step into an equity spread trade. Please see the context below for further details
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Macro Nugget: Why the price at the pump matters for inflation expectations
With the recent surge in oil prices due to supply constraints, we highlight the contrasting market impact in the US and the Eurozone. Our Monday Macro Nugget available below
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