Gold has enjoyed a revival on the back of inflation and monetary expansion. But what happens when the tailwinds disappear?
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
The West sent checks, while China focused on supply-side policies in response to Covid. But what will Beijing do now?
2021 will be remembered as a great policy error year at the FED and the ECB. But other central banks saw the inflation coming. Will they be in front of the curve again in 2023?
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
As a new addition to our editorial, I will now provide a monthly overview of emerging markets, taking a step back from the intricacies and offering a broader perspective. The purpose of this feature is to outline our current positioning within the market cycle and highlight the key factors we are monitoring surrounding EM.
After a vanilla consensus meeting yesterday, we have compiled some charts that we find relevant or containing data that we will closely monitor in the upcoming weeks leading up to July
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
The banks have experienced a quiet resurgence in recent weeks, but is Yellen poised to put an end to the summer festivities?
We have not been shy about our euro skepticism lately (to say the least) but as we now trade it, I thought it only appropriate to add some broader context to it. The way I perceive and understand the Eurozone I owe much to the influence of Edward Hugh who is sadly not with us anymore. I had him in mind writing this piece
Our portfolio is green and we are content with the returns despite a few bad apples in the mix. The market environment is uncertain, and we anticipate increased selling pressure is imminent once the tightening gets going. Risk management and diversification are crucial in this setup. See our weekly performance evaluation for here details
As we approach the June rate decision, markets cannot find a solid footing. But neither can the FED. The stakes are high and opinions are split among decision-makers
As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!
Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
While everyone is looking at Europe for safety we are taking the other side of the trade. The unbalances of the Eurozone haven’t gone away and with inflation & dark clouds on the horizon, we question whether an indebted fragmented economy can hold fast as the economic winds turn unfavorable. Lagarde is running out of bullets and fiscal ammunition is in short supply
The China play has thus far not been profitable but I refuse to back down on my underlining analysis- Yet some reconsiderations are in order and it might be the start of a larger reevaluation. But for now the course of the ship is intact
To quote Hemmingway: Gradually then suddenly. That goes both for Silicon Valley bank’s infamous deposit base and the transition of monetary policy into the real economy. Is the peak in? Not in pain
In recent weeks, social media and leading financial media have been flooded with sensational articles about the dollar’s demise. In this piece, I will provide an analysis of the actual immediate obstacles facing the American dollar where USD hegemony is being undermined. Given the current US debt ceiling theater, one can scarcely think of a better point of reference than the debt default champion of the Western hemisphere: Argentina
Now that the ECB and Fed meetings have concluded, we can assess how traders have positioned themselves after the curtains have closed
We suspect both Powell and Lagarde to be content with today’s releases but perhaps the cycle fools everyone again?
The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.
In Q1, we had a long position in copper. However, since our exit, industrial metals have experienced a reversal, and most of the gains YTD have been wiped out. But could the copper story have another leg to it? In this piece, we will share our perspective combining the macro with the development from the relevant EM frontlines.
Cheers to the weekend everyone! And welcome back to your Positioning Watch series. The data is now up to speed again and you can always find ALL positioning data readily available in our datahub. We will highlight the most important conclusions weekly in this series. Equity positioning: Nasdaq positioning remains LONG – Nasdaq keeps up steam from the easter – Overall equity positioning remains short but the sentiment is not overly bearish across styles/s While the recent liquidity injection has offered tailwinds to equities we suspect fundamentals won’t justify the valuations as the sugar rush reverses. We could still see some optimism play out, but overall our long beta is running on fumes and thus trimmed down a tad FX Positioning: JPY is still unpopular – JPY positioning keeps bearish overall but a tad less than during easter – The EUR bet is still very consensusy, while BRL bullishness has lost a bit of steam – The USD positioning is long and BRL is slowly losing its favour among speculators We remain positive on BRL which seems cheap and offers good real rates in a world starving for inflation- safety. Suffice to say price action has yet to follow suit Commodity Positioning: Gold party is still on – Gold positioning may look stretched and plenty of profits could be ripe for taking. But positioning remains long for now – Energy still hasn’t got the recession memo On the surface, it may look as if oil is simply proxying expectations of […]
After a job claims report that was only slightly weaker than the consensus yesterday, our focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the PMI reports toda
Following the publication of my EM by EM debut piece, where I highlighted the attractive set-up for Brazilian sovereigns (which thus far have fared well), we now shift our focus across the Pacific to Beijing.
After a shocking CPI report from the UK, one may ponder whether British exceptionalism carries the day or whether we have more price pain in store for the continent. We hold our ground and remain in the “CPI is deaccelerating fast” camp
This week’s CPI report aligned seamlessly with our expectations, affirming the anticipated cycle-pattern. Naturally, this begs the question – what lies ahead, and what could break our view? Some additional thoughts for the weekend.
Peak inflation is in, but monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” as monetarists say. While Goods inflation is sliding, some areas are resilient and services inflation remains an issue. Even though expectations and soft data are perplexing, there are pockets of data indicating a fight-back to the weakening dove sentiment.