Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise?
Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
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Something for your Espresso – Is China the final prerequisite for takeoff in the global economy?
China is improving in GDP terms as we round the week, but what does that mean for risk assets and the macro picture?
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Positioning Update – Key positioning trends ahead of CPI
Ahead of the CPI report, we share key positioning trends across all asset classes.
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Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional or The Macro Connoisseur plan.
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China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
We have refrained from calling a rebound in inflation as China was weakening. What if that’s no longer the base case?
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Positioning Watch – How the Tables Have Turned in Fixed Income
Equities are off to a bad start as rates continue to climb higher, and positioning has shifted significantly in bonds since Christmas. More downside risk looms if volatility continues to rise, which seems likely.
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Something for your Espresso – What’s up and down in bond yields at the moment?
The positive correlation between stocks and bonds is back, which means that bond yields are now all that matters. Will the ship turn?
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25 Charts for 2025
We have compiled some of THE charts to watch as we enter the new year with the Trump presidency, Fed flip-flopping and high equity market concentration posing risks to markets.
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2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?
With the start of 2025 rapidly approaching, we share some insights from our data library that can identify the direction in which things are moving globally from the start of 2025!
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Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025
As we approach year-end markets have started reacting strangely to data prints from both the US, EZ and UK in rates space, all of a sudden withdrawing a lot of the cuts in 2025 from forward-pricing. What’s going on?
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Something for your Espresso – Melt-up December, Melt-down January?
Macro surprises are turning in the US, and markets will likely not get the reacceleration in growth that they are looking for. Will this melt-up in December lead to a melt-down in January?
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The Drill – The China Meltdown Is Ruining the Upbeat Trends in Manufacturing
While global manufacturing trends are improving slightly beneath the surface, the Chinese economy has taken another turn south after stimulus efforts failed to deliver (again). There are not a lot of positive signs for commodities at the moment.
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The Week at a Glance – The battle of R-star?
Markets have a hard time figuring out where the neutral rate is in the US and its peers, which leaves interesting opportunities in Fixed Income as we enter 2025. Are markets right that neutral rates can be widely different in a global economy?
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Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional or The Macro Connoisseur plan.
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Positioning Watch – Is the Santa Rally at risk of being canceled? Not yet..
There are a lot of signs that the current rally in risk assets is driven primarily by continued flows despite macro showing mixed signs, which begs the question whether the clock is ticking for risk assets like US equities and crypto.
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Something for your Espresso – It all depends on inflation
For the first time since early 2023, markets are starting to price a marginal risk of re-accelerating inflation, marking a major shift. Everything hinges on inflation being resolved, and things could get ugly if it climbs back towards 4%.
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The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?
China is likely preparing stimulus in size to combat the tariffs from the Trump administration, but what are the effects on commodities? As always, it’s more complicated than it might look.
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Something for your Espresso – Is this another round of headline hockey?
China changes its stance on monetary policy for the first time in a decade, moving from “tight” to “moderately loose” – a label that was last used during the financial crisis. Are they moving the needle this time around, or is it another round of headline hockey?
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The Week at a Glance – Is China preparing the 2008 bazooka?
While this week is relatively quiet from a release perspective, we are getting news from China that monetary policy should be “moderately loose”—the exact same wording used in 2008.
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Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional or The Macro Connoisseur plan.
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Something for your Espresso – 3 reasons why NFP will print
The NFP consensus has been rising consistently ahead of the release today as markets expect the last report to have been a fluke. Is this narrative justified? We present 3 arguments as to why it’s not.
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Positioning Watch – Markets have NOT been Ready for Growth to Weaken in the US
Hedge funds are heavily favoring US > Europe across all asset classes, but what if the Europe trade is starting to reverse while the US trade is running on fumes?
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Something for Your Espresso – Europe is BACK
We are starting to see European equities rally across the board—also relative to US indices. Is Europe poised for a broad-based comeback in risk assets?
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Macro Nugget: Will South Korea gain from the renewed US/China trade war?
With China banning exports of rare-earth metals to the US crucical in manufacturing of semi-conductors, South Korea might serve as an intermediary between the 2.
Something for Your Espresso – All Eyes on ISM Services
We will get Services PMIs from nearly every major economy in the world today, and you can’t afford to miss out! This week could set the stage for the next geographical relative value trades in macro, as the manufacturing versus services divergence begins to materialize as expected in the US.
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The Week at a Glance: Manufacturing Rebound, Fed Liquidity Signals & Oil’s Fragile Balance
We’ve started to observe weaknesses in the US economy across our growth models, a major game changer with the ISM report and NFP coming up this week. Could weakness in the US economy prompt the Fed into a 25 bps cut in December? Odds are increasing for such a scenario.
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Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional or The Macro Connoisseur plan.
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Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!
The US is now being heavily favored across positioning gauges, which begs the question: is it time to be a bit more cautious about US risk assets going into 2025?
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Macro Nugget: Equities are frontrunning a 20% increase in 2025 earnings
Equity pricing are showing very optimistic expectations for the future – are markets becoming too bullish?