If a rebound in manufacturing is truly happening, current dynamics in FX option markets provide cheap leverage and good opportunities to capitalize on our trading ideas. In the equity space, broad momentum is slowly creeping back in ETF fund flows, and the early reacceleration in prices haven’t affected sentiment it seems.
Markets have started to factor in good news as bullish, which all of a sudden makes market pricing (on equities mostly) indicative of economic expectations once again. Are there still opportunities in the cyclical momentum?
From 200 bps worth of cuts priced in for June across the big 3 CBs in the start of January to 100 bps now. Does it move the needle or is everybody still on the risk-wagon?
The BLS will update inflation weights and seasonal adjustment factors on Friday, the labor market is still strong but weaknesses are emerging, oil dropped back below 80 despite solid fundamentals, Chinese equities look cheap and the US is nowhere near a recession (for now). We will cover it all today.
Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
Option premiums allow one to derive risk-neutral probabilities for the underlying security at expiry. How are these probabilities looking for USD, EUR- and GBP inflation?
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
The resilience of the US labor market is hard to argue against, but the downwards-sloping trend from Q4 last year looks to continue into the new year. We have a look at the numbers.
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
Our models hint of a HUGE increase in liquidity in January due to issuance and outflows from the ON RRP facility, which might provide some fuel for the soft landing rally in equities and bonds. See what our Asset Allocation tool suggests for the month ahead here.
Limited upside in the ISM Manufacturing index as we await a dovish EUR-flation number coming in on Friday. There are plenty of things to look at in the global macro landscape this week.
We round off 2023 with some what-ifs that could wrongfoot consensus in 2024. And maybe they are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
As we approach 2024 we have a look at 2023 in rewind and point out the main positioning themes of the year, and how investors have positioned themselves for the new year.
We launched our own alpha portfolio earlier this year, and oh boy has it been a (mostly enjoyable) ride. Read along as we look back at our performance this year and prepare for next year’s allocation.
Markets are expecting a re-acceleration in November’s inflation number tomorrow with expectations at 0.1% vs 0.0% in October. What do our models tell us, and what should we expect? Our thoughts and findings here.
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
Bonds and liquidity are taking the headlines as we most likely are approaching the end of the global hiking cycle. Find out what we currently look at here.
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
With Spanish and German inflation numbers out today, it’s almost safe to say that Eurostat will deliver a dovish number tomorrow as well.
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
The US CPI report will land in our inbox tomorrow, and while tomorrow’s print could look promising for the disinflation-crowd, the path toward 2% is more tricky than first anticipated.
As SLOOS-alike reports have come in for both EU and Japan, we have a look at the differences in credit surveys across the Atlantic, and which credit spreads to look out for in the time to come
The supply side has probably been what’s driven commodities higher in 2023, but how is the supply looking in metals and grains currently given the recent surprising momentum in for example Iron Ore?
With central bank policy and energy having dominated FX throughout 22’, we have a look at what underlying fundamentals and correlations are telling us about the fair value of the hottest FX pairs currently.