Economic data keeps surprising us positively, and markets are starting to believe that a soft landing is the base case. That’s at least what positioning data is telling us.
The deposit guarantee scheme requires all banks to pay a yearly fee to local DGS funds to reach a preset target. But what countries are missing their targets, and who will have the hardest time at year-end?
It’s Wednesday, and that calls for us to dissect 5 topics that we follow in Global Macro currently. What to expect from today’s panel discussion between governors? How is it going with the ongoing fragmentation of Europe? And will Riksbank hike 50bps like Norge’s bank? Find out here.
With today’s recessionary PMI numbers, hawkish central bank rhetoric and a shift in price action, there are good reasons to believe that positioning might flip from now on, as investors will likely prefer bonds over equities.
With the recent central bank bonanza, pivot hopes and the ongoing rally in equities, there are plenty of things to take a look at in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’. Follow along, as we share our thoughts on what to look out for in the weeks to come.
The higher-for-longer crowd has rightfully been celebrating as the short end of the curve has reached pre-SVB levels. We find that structurally nothing has changed and that 10 years of ZIRP being replaced by unprecedented and unpredictable rate hikes is still bound to bring more pressure on banking and here’s why.
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
Bullish price action and the soft-landing narrative is still roaring in markets, and we thus wonder whether It’s just the AI bonanza that’s driving market sentiment, or if the big players have actually switched their views. We take a look at institutional positioning and fund flows in this week’s edition.
While we have been vocal about an upcoming credit crunch, credit spreads are not moving whatsoever. Are the markets wrong, and what’s keeping credit spreads low?
With the debt ceiling deal done and yesterday’s stunning NFP numbers, the soft landing narrative seems to be back, and optimism is gaining territory in the global macro scene. See what this means for positioning across asset classes, and whether you’ve placed your eggs in the right basket.
Is Brazil a hideout in the current environment? How will Italy refinance its debt? Is it time for CNY to head lower? Have we seen the top in DAX? And will the banking crisis move to Europe? Find the answers here.
With Lagarde and her companions taking a semi-hawkish stance recently, Italy is in a difficult position as funding possibilities are narrowing in front of their eyes. They need somebody to buy their govies, while the ECB wants to tighten policy further. Follow along in today’s piece, where we dive into the details of the Italian government and its debt problems.
Based on price action, equity optimism is back, but positioning data tells us another story. We unfold the mystery, as well as providing you with positioning data across asset classes. Find out if you share the view of traders in this week’s edition.
What’s going on with Italian banks? How does the Chinese reopening look? What are the ramifications of a US shutdown? Will consumers run out of excess savings? And are FX crosses ready for a recession? Find the answers in this week’s edition.
One of the big drivers behind inflation and the economic boom in 2021 is the excess liquidity that the US government created for households and consumers. But what exactly has excess savings meant for the economy, and what is the outlook? Find out here.
Wednesday is back, and so is the weekly post where we highlight what we are currently spending our time looking at. Don’t miss out on the crucial tendencies in global macro presented in this shorter piece!
A couple of weeks ago, we provided you with a list of regional banks with the biggest exposure towards commercial real estate. Now, it’s time to see how those players have performed since, as well as providing you with further charts on the real estate outlook. Enjoy!
Despite all the recession talks and worsening economic conditions, consumers seem to be fine (for now), which might disturb our thesis of lower inflation and a recession in H2. In this piece, we’ll shed some light on the household balance sheet and deduce what it means for macro the next couple of months
With the failure of First Republic Bank and Ueda’s dovish remarks, we once again dig into how traders are positioned across asset classes. Find out if you have picked the right horses in this week’s edition.
The banking crisis seems to be back, Asia is apparently the new black, and the hopes of an economic comeback in the West is vanishing. Things are certainly not as we thought a couple of months ago, but follow along as we look at the best hideouts in this week’s edition.
It seems like traders are hesitant to make major allocation adjustments in the current environment, leaving us with a ‘silence before the storm’ impression. Find out if you have your eggs in the correct baskets in this week’s edition.
With the banking turmoil leaving the headlines (for now), we turn our attention towards the main themes in the broader macro landscape. What’s going on with inflation? What will the Fed do? Is oil turning bullish? And what about Japan? As always we keep you updated on the 5 biggest themes of the week. Enjoy!
When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!