Samuel Shiffman

Similarly to launching his meme coin, Trump’s focus remains fixated on short-term wins at the expense of long-term stability. Why should ballooning debt be any different when immediate gratification is the priority?

With inflation cooling and markets teetering, the BoE might just trade in its tea for maple syrup. Meanwhile, across the pond, the US CPI is brewing a hawkish storm, reminding everyone that taming inflation is no walk in the park.

From whisper numbers and payroll predictions to revisions, wage growth, and unemployment trends—here’s why this could shape market sentiment amidst rising rates and a resilient labor market.

As the Fed and ECB navigate different paths, markets wrestle with rate cuts, QT, and shifting inflation dynamics.

China’s Yuan slides as stimulus whispers grow louder, the Fed hints at a December rate cut despite its September reaction function misaligning with current data, and Germany struggles with rising wages amid industrial decline

China’s growth engine is sputtering, Japan’s finally waking up with inflation, and the USD is wobbling under bond seasonality and Fed liquidity magic. Throw in an oil-yield breakup and slowing U.S. services, and you’ve got a market cocktail worth watching!

The meeting minutes from the Fed supported the US Treasury investment case, and we continue to see signs of lower bond yields in the US, which also spills-over to the USD despite tariffs threats. 

Another weak month for Europe, with the EUR taking a significant hit as markets price in a 50bps cut from the ECB. Meanwhile, profits remain elusive in China, leaving the US as the “cleanest shirt in the laundry.”

“We’re in no rush to cut rates”—think of us as the cautious turtle, not the reckless hare.

While everyone is focused on major central bank decisions expected today, significant stress is building up in liquidity. The Fed and the Bank of England both are about to deliver 25 bps decreases.

It’s been an eventful 24 hours in the bond space, likely offering a first glimpse of the volatility we can expect with next week’s election. The term premia scare remains very much intact, but underlying supply and inflation fundamentals suggest it should fade as risks subside.

The Trump bet is driving everything in the markets, with bond yields rising while oil prices are plummeting. It seems likely that this disconnect could continue into next week, paired with upcoming softness in European inflation numbers.

Term premiums are rising, but spending will likely be reigned in short-term both in the US and in the UK. The question is how precious metals respond to a fading term premium in November and December?

The ECB is expected to be the most dovish central bank in the G3 space, but there is also light at the end of the tunnel for those hoping to see a comeback of strong returns in USD fixed income.

China’s upcoming fiscal policy briefing follows market disappointment over the lack of major stimulus, triggering a sell-off in Chinese assets. Confidence remains low despite cheap credit, and the PBoC’s limited measures offer little relief. The real solution lies in significant fiscal action to restore demand and stabilize the market.

One weak NFP report and rates could drop significantly, but a >200k report will likely challenge the front-end anchoring of the dot plot. There’s a lot at stake today, and we’ll guide you through how markets are positioned.

China is coming through with stimulus proposal after stimulus proposal, which has fueled the China rebound story once again. When is the turning point where stimulus is actually helping the economy? Few of their initiatives have worked previously, so it’s difficult to expect a different outcome this time around.

In the U.S, rising unemployment and faltering consumer confidence could push the Federal Reserve toward larger interest rate cuts. Over in China, despite temporary rallies, the country’s stimulus efforts seem insufficient, with many investors turning to cryptocurrencies amid a struggling economy. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, alongside Iran’s cautious positioning, add further uncertainty, but Iran’s weakened economy may push them toward diplomacy with the West.

With the growth outlook starting to align with a soft landing, the trends we are seeing across assets are starting to rhyme with the patterns we saw during the cutting cycle in 2019. If that has any historical value, what should we expect in the coming weeks?