Taking profits in natural gas!
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Macro Nugget: More liquidity and less pressure on the long end in June/July
Improving liquidity with help from Yellen & co!
Macro Nugget: Chinese copper stock continuing to baffle
Copper stock levels in China and the chart that continues to baffle more and more!
Energy Cable: The oil market is OVERLY pessimistic by now..
The positioning is very negative in energy markets, which looks like a decent contrarian signal to us. We continue to like energy (both oil and Nat Gas) versus metals into July.
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Macro Nugget: Freight rates continuing their increase!
There is nothing stopping freight rates at the moment, it seems!
Trade Alert: Going long and short in commodity space
On how to trade the rolling melt-up in commodity space relatively speaking..
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Macro Nugget: On housing and shelter inflation in the US
Immigration is putting pressures on shelter inflation.
Energy Cable: Commodities, Freight Rates and Goods imports are rising and you tell us that demand is weak?
A soft inflation report was apparently exactly what the Commodity space needed to fuel another move higher. Softening (lagged) inflation numbers such as rents, will help solidify the re-inflation loop, which looks increasingly bullish to us.
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Macro Nugget: Why India is the main loser if China rebounds
If China truly bounces back, India will sell off further
Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB
We’ll present 3 arguments for the ECB to commence its rate cutting cycle and not be afraid of the Fed and their policy rate decisions.
Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag
We are seeing improving fundamentals in our nowcasts and see the industrial cycle improving in both China and the US through May again. Was the sell-off in oil temporary in April? We are betting so.
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Trade Alert: Long crude oil and FSTE
2 new positions added to our portfolio!
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Macro Nugget: Freight rates are getting spicy again
Forth straight week of rising freight rates for 40 foot containers!
Macro Nugget: Trump vs Biden
A look at asset markets’ expectation of the upcoming presidential race between Biden and Trump.
FREE MACRO NUGGET: Are PMI numbers garbage post Covid?
With ISM numbers coming out this week here’s a free macro nugget with some reflections on post pandemic PMIs
Free Macro Nugget: Have you looked at the Ifo numbers, Miss Lagarde?
Focus on German industrial production and the Ifo report from last week
Ifo Nugget: Confirmed.. The only inflation you’ll get in Germany is supply driven
The full Ifo report just landed which means another quick Ifo Nugget with the most important charts from this month’s German activity numbers, which overall came in weak. Let’s dive into it.
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Free Macro Nugget: EVs are sooo last year
Focus on electric vs combustion engine vehicles.
Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities
The rise in energy prices, the USD wreckingball and the higher-for-longer narrative has finally reached equities, which seems to be taking a bit of a breather here. We take a look at movements in energy and commodity markets once again.
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Free Macro Nugget: Cut rates and inflation will go down
Cut rates if you want lower inflation, Powell
Free Macro Nugget: 2 charts for the inflation doves
Free Macro Nugget on 2 charts for the inflation doves.
Energy Cable: Good luck reaching your 2% target, Powell
The reflation will likely continue as long as Powell and his ilk keeps an implicit dovish bias intact. Energy markets will likely remain bid, but the broader commodity story seems more interesting to play than oil at these levels.
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The week at a glance: Soft CPI in UK and a BIG positive surprise from China?
Each Monday, we will go through the main events of the upcoming week in a short- and sweet format. Follow along to get our takes on the data surprise of the week!
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Trade Alert: Getting out of duration in AUD & EUR
Exiting some suration trades and moving on in the reflation trades
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Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
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Out of the Box: 6 reasons the Fed will be hiking rates in 2024
Another ‘Out of the Box’ with some food for thought on Fed’s rate path and the most un-appreciated risk scenario, namely more hikes.
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Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China
Solid numbers out of China over Easter solidifies the commodity case including in Energy. If China is actually moving, commodities remain too cheap.
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Something for your Espresso: A bridge over troubled waters
Is the collapse of the Baltimore key bridge a biggie for global macro? Let’s have a look at the numbers ahead of an inflation packed Easter.
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Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
The full Ifo report was released yesterday, and here is the summary with the most important charts from our models. Overall, there is not a lot of fuel to the reflation story in Germany.
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Something for your Espresso: From China with love
USDCNH keeps trading with a premium to the USDCNY rate, while discussions are ongoing on whether Japan will face >2% inflation forever from here. Meanwhile, German assets are trading out of sync with fair value.
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