Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Energy Cable: 4 charts that should keep Largarde up at night
Eurozone inflation looks uber dovish in the coming months and the ECB looks ready to commence its cutting cycle in the spring. And rightly so given our own forecasts. Looking on the other side of the Summer, however, the picture changes with a set up for another round of inflationary pressures.
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CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?
We are growing increasingly convinced that we will not see a single print of 2% or lower in the US CPI in this cycle. Despite a cyclical de-acceleration, the sticky components keep the CPI too high and beneath the hood cyclicality is returning.
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5 Things We Watch: USD-flation, Global Inflation, US Labor Market, Japan, Bitcoin
Things are starting to look a little troublesome for the US economy in the mid-term as re-accelerating inflation and a weakening labor market is no easy cocktail for the Fed. Read more here together with some notes on freight rates, Japan and the new BTC ETF.
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Suez/Panama Nugget: Rising troubles in both Canals
There are currently signs of rising supply bottlenecks in both the Suez- and the Panama canal. Good news for shipping companies, but bad news for consumers in 3-4 months from now.
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Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
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Suez Watch: Massively rising Container freight rates, while Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude rates are more muted
Freight rates are on the rise fast! How bad is the situation in the Red Sea? More here.
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Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?
Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
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Five Things We Watch For In 2024
Welcome to the last 5 Things We Watch for this year, which we have decided to make a 5 Things We Watch for 2024 with an outlook on key topics for 2024
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EIA Watch: Is OPEC falling apart? 2024 outlook
We take a look at the 2024 outlook in our final EIA watch of the year. Cracks are appearing within the OPEC group and Angola will allegedly leave the cartel.
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Energy Cable #50: Oil back in fashion
Oil is suddenly back in fashion on the back of a dovish FOMC meeting and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Is the oil bet back on? Or is it too early?
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Trade Alert: It’s going down under!
We add further duration to the portfolio in a laggard curve!
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Energy Cable #49: Ouch …..
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
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Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas longs to Scholz: “Thank you!”
Happy Monday to everybody from a cold Copenhagen where we will quickly touch upon the OPEC meeting before we reveal why we are thanking Olaf Scholz.
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5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Energy Cable: The review that became a preview!
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
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Ifo Nugget: Should we believe the numbers?
Today we got the full Ifo report which allows us to refresh our Ifo models and take the temperature of the German economy.
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5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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5 things we watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Energy Watch: Time to buy oil again?
OPEC increased the demand forecast and continues to highlight paper market shorts as the reason for the weakness in oil markets. We largely agree but also see signs of exhaustion coming out of Saudi Arabia.
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Energy Cable #46: Scholz to the rescue!
German politicians have agreed to subsidize energy bills for the heavy industry, which will likely lead to an increased demand for a scarce commodity. Is this the right timing to enter long bets in Natural Gas again?
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Energy Cable #45 – The world needs a Riyadh Accord
Happy Monday to everybody and welcome back to another Energy Cable. On the back of the last week’s of tension in the Middle East we thought we would do a bit of thought-provoking argumentation for a potential US-Saudi deal which we have dubbed “The Riyadh Accord”.
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5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio
This week’s 5 Things has a strong focus on Japan and the BOJ while it also touches on the equity market and lends the reader a look at our portfolio.
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Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a diversifier + JPY focus
Your weekly Energy Cable with thoughts on the growing correlations across natural gas and electricity in Europe and a quick JPY take
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Ifo Watch: Signs of disinflation bottoming out in Germany?
Inflation is likely going to drop just below 2% in Europe/Germany, but there are signs of bottoming price pressures in the IFO Survey, while the Chemicals sector keeps improving orders/inventory ratios.
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Something for your Espresso: How’s the mood in the room now, Lagarde?
A bloodbath in equities, a new re-steepening of the curve and signs of life in the long energy trade again. It sure doesn’t look pretty out there, but will Lagarde and the ECB admit to it? Big day ahead!
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Energy Cable #43: Price resilience despite warm weather
The heating season is yet to really turn into a heating season and warm temperatures have wreaked slightly havoc with our Nat Gas bet so far. Beneath the surface, the fundamental bullishness is brewing and our models double down on the positivity!
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The Energy Cable #42 – Quiet self-gratulation and then onto natural gas and crude oil
Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?
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5 Things We Watch: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics and Portfolio
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our 5 Things We Watch, where we as always run through 5 interesting topics in global macro relevant to the current and near-term market actions. We’ll as usual be short and concise, covering what has already happened this week, as well as what will happen next.
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The Energy Cable #41: There is something rotten in the state of EIA
Was the entire price drop in the oil price driven by EIA data on flawed assumptions? Will the renewed turmoil in the Middle East revive the oil bet and is the Natural Gas market the new market to watch as an energy bull? Here is your weekly letter on the subjects.
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