With the AFD becoming the second-largest party in national polls and yesterday’s election successes in Bavaria and Hesse, right-wing populism is on the rise in Europe. Migration plays a crucial role, and we’ve examined its impact on the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Germany. Read the full nugget below.
We have looked at historical macro data to assess how assets perform around and in a recession, and if we are actually heading towards one.
A rising discrepancy between crack spreads in Gasoline and Diesel space is worth noting as we move our attention away from oil to other parts of the energy space to find decent risk/reward.
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
With today’s release of the total Ifo data from the manufacturing sector we wanted to quickly touch upon the main data points we are looking at. We particularly note that good news in Germany, is now bad news for the EUR, since an uptick in the industry means more gas buying, which in turn means more FX outflow.
Is the oil bull market about to become old hat? We are turning our attention to Natural Gas and Uranium to find value in energy markets. Find out why here!
Both nuclear and oil returns have gone bananas in recent weeks, so it might be time to change focus in energy space? We look at the model evidence across energy asset classes.
Prices paid to US producers increased in August by the most in more than a year largely due to energy. Is relative US vs EU market pricing off? Here are the key takeaways!
We have noticed a trend of unionized labor proposing aggressive wage and working demands, thus we thought this would be a good time for a quick wage nugget.
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our weekly edition of 5 Things We Watch, where we take you through the 5 things we are currently keeping an eye on in the global macro landscape.
Energy inflation is back on the board, and it will soon spread to PPI and the other components if current trends persist. We take you through the most important take-aways from the report.
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
We are well under way in our Services Week with our focus on Services and in this note we wanted to highlight the issues central banks could face in a scenario in which manufacturing outpaces services.
Our services week is hot and running, where we share our take on the rebound in manufacturing amidst a weakening in the services sector. Today we will share some of the takes we have looked at, as well as what lies ahead
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
This week we had the anticipated German Ifo report come out in full, and while most parameters did not surprise, some might just be worth a closer inspection – an inspection we’ve decided to carry out
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
Big BRICS meeting in South Africa this week … So inviting Saudi Arabia et al. into the club is one big positive EV right? Well not necessarily
S&P Global US Manufacturing out later today and we get to test our thesis on relative signs of strength in the PMI numbers.
Is the Chinese malaise an issue for energy bulls? Let’s have a look at market fundamentals and price action amidst the ongoing melt-down in Chinese construction.
Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. Since we have not covered much else than China this week and the fact that it remains one of the key macro stories we thought we would exclusively zoom in on 5 things we watch related to China.
What are the options on the table for Xi? And how will Chinese assets react to different types of stimulus? We take a look at the scenarios in this piece and find that things may be improving already from a rate of change perspective.
Happy start to the week everybody, hope you have had a great weekend! Lots of things are going on in markets right now, perhaps most importantly China, so let’s dive right into that.
This week has been all about the yield curve and a potential steepener here at Steno Research. We’ll end the week on a short note for those seeking alternative ways of playing the steepener.
CPI numbers, here we go! CPI came in at pretty much consensus on all parameters so no surprise there. However, we wouldn’t want to rob you of the chance at some quick deep dives into the numbers.
As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
A weaker USD, a slight rebound in the Manufacturing cycle and still tight supply has re-ignited the energy space alongside the broader commodity trend. There is certainly progress for bulls now.
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
A quick note on household savings in the 4 major EZ countries where we apply the excess savings method of the Fed using Eurostat data