In this biweekly analysis series, Mads Eberhardt, a former Cryptocurrency Analyst at Saxo Bank and trader at Bitcoin Suisse, unveils the complex world of crypto assets. With 8 years of hands-on experience in crypto, Mads delves deep into the heartbeat of the industry, offering a nuanced understanding that goes beyond the surface. We invite you to tap into this extensive knowledge of crypto and fearlessly explore opinions that others might shy away from. While you may not agree with everything, we guarantee that your horizon will broaden.
Besides our crypto portfolio, our offering includes two publications. ‘Crypto Moves’ is our detailed editorial that mostly analyzes a single topic in-depth, published every Thursday. ‘Crypto Crisp,’ on the other hand, is our concise note, published on Mondays, that prepares you for the week ahead in crypto, not least by looking back at the past week.
Donald Trump has officially returned as President of the United States. Although neither he nor his administration has made any statements about digital assets or issued any executive orders concerning this asset class yet—despite earlier speculation that this might happen today—there is absolutely no cause for concern. Over the weekend, Trump and his family doubled down on their commitment to cryptocurrency. It is only a matter of time before positive developments emerge from the Oval Office.
We anticipate strong performance from both Ethereum and Solana in 2025. Alongside this, we have identified two beta plays within their respective ecosystems that we also expect to perform exceptionally well during the year. Both tokens showcase robust revenue generation, ongoing technological innovation, and relatively low market capitalizations.
The crypto market’s downturn largely stems from two key concerns, both tied to developments in the United States. The first is the potential liquidation of a significant portion of seized Bitcoins by the U.S. government ahead of Trump’s inauguration. The second is the ongoing repricing driven by an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, with inflation once again taking center stage. While we do not view the first issue as a major concern, we believe the latter could further pressure the crypto market, likely worsening conditions before prices eventually return to green.
Altcoins, Liquidity, and the Business Cycle: Brace for the Q1 Squeeze
The Washington Post and President-elect Donald Trump seem to disagree on whether Trump will implement significant tariffs once he assumes office later this month. We side with the Washington Post. All that and more in the first Crypto Crisp of the year.
The year 2025 is set to be a defining moment for the crypto market, with the potential for remarkable positive developments. In this note, we present our detailed quantitative forecasts for 2025, including our price projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming year.
In our opinion, the market’s current fears are exaggerated and should be met with a sense of composure. Our perspective is to weather this wave of fear calmly while enjoying a pleasant and peaceful Christmas season.
Network effects and adoption are the most vital factors for the success of blockchains. These metrics are essential when evaluating whether a blockchain has achieved a meaningful network effect.
MicroStrategy, the U.S.-based intelligence software provider, has been included in the Nasdaq 100 index. This inclusion is expected to trigger a significant one-time purchase, as well as continuous accumulation by ETFs and other index-linked investment vehicles. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week, while momentum continues to drive both the U.S. equities market and, arguably, the crypto market.
The crypto market continues to show strong bullish momentum, but inflation—a well-known adversary for digital assets—has unexpectedly returned to the spotlight. This is the current state of affairs.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is forming a crypto team for his administration, which looks highly favorable for the crypto industry. On another note, the recent U.S. jobs report delivered extremely ideal conditions for digital assets. Meanwhile, smaller Bitcoin holders are showing a trend of selling, while the largest whale, MicroStrategy, continues to accumulate bitcoins.
Bitcoin recently broke through the highly significant psychological level of $100,000 but has since dipped below it. The pressing question now is whether Bitcoin will close above $100,000 on New Year’s Eve. Here, we examine the key charts that will determine the answer—and we believe the answer is yes.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has begun to shine again, not only through its price growth but also through crucial metrics that are fueling this resurgence.
While much of the crypto world is focused on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, many are overlooking the significant positive strides introduced by the European Union’s MiCA regulatory framework, set for full implementation on December 30. This framework aims to protect investors while making the crypto market more accessible and appealing, particularly to non-crypto-native retail and institutional investors.
We are witnessing a growing trend of crypto-friendly regulatory environments, with the UK now aligning itself alongside the U.S. and Europe. While this regulatory progress is more of a longer term development, in the very near term, market conditions suggest we are overbought.
The 4-year cycle for Bitcoin strikes again, just as it has three times before. It simply appears that the market is stupid, unable to recognize the supply shock caused by Bitcoin halvings from miles away. Drawing on the outcomes of the previous three halvings, we look forward to what the medium term may bring for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy continues its aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions, while the market’s speculative nature shows no signs of abating.
Altcoin season in this bull market is approaching fast. Trump’s U.S. presidential victory is undoubtedly more favorable for altcoins than for Bitcoin, and they stand to gain even more from declining interest rates. We are already seeing the effects, with Ethereum’s transactional revenue surging in recent days. Following Trump’s win, we estimate a 50% chance that a new ETF will launch in the U.S. in 2025, with Solana being the most likely candidate.
Last week, Trump’s reelection as U.S. President ignited a significant rally in digital assets, marking one of the most impactful days in crypto history. While Bitcoin soared to nearly $85,000, we remain cautious about the speculative surge fairly driven by derivatives. The uptrend is risky to bet against, but sharp corrections may still lie ahead.
Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States is a game changer for the crypto market, setting the stage for transformative years ahead. We are confident that this will reshape the industry. However, in the immediate term, the rally seems to be driven more by the derivatives market than by the spot market. We would like to see some of this speculative excess ease, paving the way for a more sustainable move higher.
The U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a toss-up. The upside? A Donald Trump win tomorrow would spark a near-term surge in crypto prices. The downside? We are more likely looking at a Kamala Harris administration over the next four years, which would be far less supportive of the crypto industry.
The macroeconomic environment is turning strongly positive for crypto, with liquidity on the rise and interest rates trending downward. Now, the last piece is a Trump victory on Tuesday—without it, the crypto markets could get nasty.
The overall trend in the crypto market remains upward. However, for the time being, it seems largely driven by speculative activity in the derivatives market. This level of speculation is not sustainable, so we continue to look for a reduction in the open interest of futures.
MicroStrategy’s premium over Bitcoin has surged due to Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin bank’ vision and the recent stock split. However, with the availability of ETF options, increasing global regulatory clarity—especially under a likely Trump administration—and rising Bitcoin prices putting additional buying pressure on MicroStrategy, we expect the premium to fall below 200%, similar to what occurred during the 2021 bull market.
The overall trend of the crypto market is undoubtedly upward. However, we are waiting for some of the excess open interest and leverage in the market to be cleared out. This is likely to occur following what we expect will be an imminent retaliatory strike by Israel.
Over the past week, my X feed has been flooded with doomsday predictions claiming that Uniswap launching its own Ethereum rollup will be the final blow to Ethereum. This is absolutely not the case. In the short term, it will have no impact on the activity of Uniswap’s mainnet application. In the longer term, it will actually support Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap by being an interoperable liquidity hub. As rollups are about to start paying for blobs, Ethereum’s transactional revenue is still sustained even as activity moves from mainnet to rollups.
The crypto market showed strength over the weekend, despite a notable Coinbase discount on Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling net selling by its users. Trading higher even with this discount indicates strong upward momentum. For now, we are not concerned about the 69,330 bitcoins seized by the U.S. government in connection to the Silk Road case.
The decentralized stablecoin protocol Maker is undergoing a transition to rebrand as Sky, with its stablecoin shifting from Dai to USDS. This change is expected to significantly reduce Maker’s profitability, but we anticipate that it will drive substantial growth instead. Overall, we remain highly optimistic about this transition.
The institutional adoption of crypto is progressing steadily. Last week saw announcements from SWIFT, Visa, and BBVA. It is important to closely monitor these institutional moves, as they will play a crucial role in driving this crypto bull market.
The tensions in the Middle East and the unexpectedly tight liquidity at the start of October create a risk-reward profile that strongly favors long positions in crypto. As long as Israel does not respond with significant force against Iran, the outlook is extremely positive.