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Macro Nugget: It’s the 2021 manufacturing cycle all over again
Strong Philly Manufacturing prints while Non-Manufacturing looks weak
Macro Nugget: China is deindustrializing Germany
Germany and the EU must act before it is too late.
Macro Nugget: Housing backlogs back to pre-pandemic levels
Will 7% mortgage rates start to be felt in construction payrolls?
Macro Nugget: More pressure for the BoJ to hike
Wages and rising US yield will put pressure on the BoJ
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Macro Nugget: A weekend of spiking US inflation fears?
Crude oil and natural gas about to rise in the US?
Macro Nugget: Four charts on inflation ahead of NFP
Prior to today’s NFP number we have four charts on inflation for 2025.
Macro Nugget: Will Trump be all talk and no action?
Focus on Trump’s tough trade talks and if he’ll really back them up
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Macro Nugget: Good luck, Elon & Vivek
The DOGE bros think cutting government spending will be easy, but they might need to think again…
Macro Nugget: A trade idea to begin the new year
More US cuts for 2025 than anticipated by many?
25 Charts for 2025
We have compiled some of THE charts to watch as we enter the new year with the Trump presidency, Fed flip-flopping and high equity market concentration posing risks to markets.
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Macro Nugget: Good luck with your projection, Powell
Fed is projecting unemployment rate at 4.3% in 2025
Macro Nugget: Germany nose diving into a 2025 recession
Latest Ifo numbers out of Germany look very grim
Macro Nugget: Will South Korea gain from the renewed US/China trade war?
With China banning exports of rare-earth metals to the US crucical in manufacturing of semi-conductors, South Korea might serve as an intermediary between the 2.
Macro Nugget: Show this chart to your favorite ECB hawk
Does a weak EUR automatically lead to imported inflation?
Macro Nugget: Equities are frontrunning a 20% increase in 2025 earnings
Equity pricing are showing very optimistic expectations for the future – are markets becoming too bullish?
Macro Nugget: Not so fast, Scott
Scott Bessent’s plan of an increase in energy output of 3 boepd will take a while
Macro Nugget: German services keeping things together
For how much longer can Germany be kept alive by its services production?
Macro Nugget: Is the green dream slowly dying?
Cold snap and no winds mean exploding electricity prices in the UK
Macro Nugget: All of our Trump Administration content for free!
Check out all of our research on the election and impacts on markets.
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Something for your Espresso: Still riding the Trump trade
Trump trades are still performing well, but it will be interesting to see if the market finds any credibility in the new DOGE initiative aimed at cutting bureaucracy and spending. Could this potentially lead to a quicker resolution of the debt ceiling?
What has RFK actually said on Big Pharma?
With appointments coming in left, right and centre – here’s what potential Trump appointee RFK Jr. has actually said on big pharma.
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Macro Nugget: Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3
The expected pick to become Treasury Secretary, has proposed a “3-3-3” economic plan aimed at 3% growth, a 3% budget deficit, and a 3-million-barrel increase in daily U.S. oil production.
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The Drill: A look at Trump’s policy and their impacts
We look at the geopolitical and fiscal impact of the new Trump administration.
Something for your Espresso: The Trump trades are THROUGH THE ROOF
The market appears to have anticipated a shift in liquidity policy from both the ECB and the Fed, while “Trump trades” continue to surge. Meanwhile, with China now “de-masked,” we expect a further sell-off in China-proxies.
Macro Nugget: Take the border czar with a grain of salt?
If mass deportations lead to increased wage pressures in the US, don’t expect Trump to push it too far.
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Positioning Watch: What if Trump leads to lower bond yields?
This week’s market update reflects a cautious yet pivotal moment as investors digest the U.S. election outcome, with Donald Trump’s win and a likely Republican sweep. While market volatility has eased, positioning flows in equities, bonds, and FX suggest a mix of profit-taking and strategic rebalancing that sets the stage for what could be a transformative period ahead.
Macro Nugget: Stock vigilantes to keep Trump in a short leash?
Tariff policies could quickly be changed if the median American equity holders stand to lose.
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Crypto Moves #51 – Trump’s Win: A Game Changer for Crypto
Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States is a game changer for the crypto market, setting the stage for transformative years ahead. We are confident that this will reshape the industry. However, in the immediate term, the rally seems to be driven more by the derivatives market than by the spot market. We would like to see some of this speculative excess ease, paving the way for a more sustainable move higher.
China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?
The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to try and avoid tariffs? And what is happening in German politics?