A personal note from Andreas Steno
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Macro Nugget: German wages still hot, but for how long?
German tariff revenues remain strong, but with VW and others planning layoffs after sharp revenue drops, this may soon change.
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Macro Nugget: Expectations in the US soaring
Can Trump deliver?
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Macro Nugget: What growth slowdown?
55 ISM Manufacturing readings come New Year?
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Macro Nugget: Housing troubles in the US
US housing data later today may reveal ongoing weak MBS demand, signaling potential declines in construction despite tight supply.
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Crypto Moves #48 – Uniswap’s Unichain Is Net Positive, End of Story
Over the past week, my X feed has been flooded with doomsday predictions claiming that Uniswap launching its own Ethereum rollup will be the final blow to Ethereum. This is absolutely not the case. In the short term, it will have no impact on the activity of Uniswap’s mainnet application. In the longer term, it will actually support Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap by being an interoperable liquidity hub. As rollups are about to start paying for blobs, Ethereum’s transactional revenue is still sustained even as activity moves from mainnet to rollups.
Macro Nugget: Growth factor in the driver seat
Valuations about to come under pressure by rising long end yields?
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Macro Nugget: Big upside if BoE decides to follow the Fed
Investors not rushing in to price a more dovish BoE
Macro Nugget: Liar Liar, Pants on Fire
Trade data between China and USA has diverged
Macro Nugget: More signs of Chinese disinflation!
Money supply in China hints at cold PPI numbers
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Macro Nugget: Germany has never recovered from the energy crisis
Both IP and construction continue to look weak!
Macro Nugget: Germany better stay good friends with the Americans
Germany is experiencing a bit of a China shock.
Macro Nugget: Roadblocks for a dovish Powell
Seasonal factors will be working against Powell in the fall and winter
Macro Nugget: The head-fake business cycle strikes again
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake
Macro Nugget: No credit, no growth
More on the weakness in China
Macro Nugget: All eyes on German inflation
Something for the German hawks to consider!
Macro Nugget: OPEC Moves May Destabilize Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs raises alarms over potential OPEC supply increases that could disrupt global oil markets.
Macro Nugget: Trade tariffs helping very little!
Like water, trade tends to find a way around barriers.
Macro Nugget: More on the structual shift in China
Chinese retail sales 9% off its pre-pandemic trend
Macro Nugget: Gold living a life of its own!
Gold and its correlation with real rates has flipped after the war in Ukraine.
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Macro Nugget: BLS revision gives clear recession indication
…But it is a lot more tricky this time
Macro Nugget: US residential construction looking bad!
Construction spending has been driven mainly by the manufacturing sector
Macro Nugget: China is killing the commodity super cycle
Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess capacity.
Macro Nugget: Is this beginning to smell like a US recession?
Unemployment and housing have worsen over the course of July!
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Macro Nugget: US house owners loving the lower rates
Americans are taking advantage of the lower rates and are refinancing their mortgages.
Macro Nugget: The old culprits standing in Powell’s way
Transporation services and shelter still proving sticky!
Macro Nugget: Who is lying about UK employment data?
Unemployment rate and claimant count have diverged post Covid
Macro Nugget: Glut worries in crude oil incoming?
US refiners’ capacity utilization low for the season.
Macro Nugget: More dire data coming out of China!
Net FDI outflows out of China!
Macro Nugget: Manheim Index Revs Up
Used vehicle up 2.83% m/m