There is nothing stopping freight rates at the moment, it seems!
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Macro Nugget: On housing and shelter inflation in the US
Immigration is putting pressures on shelter inflation.
Crypto Nugget: Here Comes the Ethereum Spot ETF
President Biden and his administration have made a complete 180 to attract pro-crypto voters. Now, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF seems more likely than ever. We estimate a 95% chance of approval this year, most likely as early as this week. These ETFs, combined with a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment for crypto, will propel us to new heights.
Macro Nugget: Why India is the main loser if China rebounds
If China truly bounces back, India will sell off further
Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB
We’ll present 3 arguments for the ECB to commence its rate cutting cycle and not be afraid of the Fed and their policy rate decisions.
Macro Nugget: Freight rates are getting spicy again
Forth straight week of rising freight rates for 40 foot containers!
Macro Nugget: Trump vs Biden
A look at asset markets’ expectation of the upcoming presidential race between Biden and Trump.
Macro Nugget: The CNY is STRONG versus peers. A devaluation is appropriate
We present one of five reasons for the CNY to devaluate.
FREE MACRO NUGGET: Are PMI numbers garbage post Covid?
With ISM numbers coming out this week here’s a free macro nugget with some reflections on post pandemic PMIs
Free Macro Nugget: Have you looked at the Ifo numbers, Miss Lagarde?
Focus on German industrial production and the Ifo report from last week
Free Macro Nugget: EVs are sooo last year
Focus on electric vs combustion engine vehicles.
Free Macro Nugget: Cut rates and inflation will go down
Cut rates if you want lower inflation, Powell
Free Macro Nugget: 2 charts for the inflation doves
Free Macro Nugget on 2 charts for the inflation doves.
Crypto Moves #22 – The 2024 Bitcoin Halving Will Be A ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ Event
We foresee the next Bitcoin halving as a short-term “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, echoing the 2016 halving’s pattern, this time around even with heightened anticipation from Bitcoin ETF holders. However, long-term, we expect it to bolster Bitcoin’s price significantly, as the market tends to underappreciate the impact of these supply shocks.
Macro Nugget: China is booming!
The Li Keqiang Index posted its biggest monthly increase since 2005 in February, and multiple indicators are now blinking green for Chinese momentum.
Out of the Box : Cut rates if you want lower inflation, Powell
Long term inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates!
Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed
Money growth has improved lately in the US, while there are trillions parked on the time deposit / MMF side-lines. If the Fed cuts rates into the current rally, we may see another 2021/2022 melt-up.
Macro Nugget: Diverging US and Europe inflation outlook
One of our high conviction macro bets for this year is the major divergence between US and Euro inflation
Macro Nugget: Focus on German weapons backlog
***EU Finance Chiefs Seek More Defense Funding, But Question How** While policy makers in Europe are worried about financing in terms of fighting Russian aggression maybe they should start to look at production capacity as well. The backlogs ratio in German weapons...
Crypto Crisp: Signs of Euphoria
The Bitcoin spot ETFs are experiencing considerable net inflows, the market greatly anticipates Ethereum spot ETFs, and Coinbase reports that retail investors have returned to the market. All in all, the crypto market looks better than it has in ages, but it is not without increased leverage and early signs of euphoria.
Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!
Over the last month, we have covered the shipping troubles in the Red Sea along with the potential consequences for markets. As we are of the opinion that this topic is very important we thought that we would post a piece recapping where we are and what to expect going forward.
Great Game: No Red Sea Solution in Sight
Are we moving closer to a solution of the Red Sea Crisis or further away? Read our prognosis in this week’s Great Game
Out of the Box #26: OPEC is dead in it current form
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Crypto Moves #5 – Betting on Macro
A bet on crypto right now is a bet on macroeconomics. For believers in a soft landing and imminent interest rate cuts, accumulating crypto could be advantageous. In this scenario, we believe Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin massively. Alternatively, those anticipating a hard landing may find it wise to stay on the sidelines for now. Delve deeper into our analysis for a comprehensive understanding of our view.
Crypto Moves #1 – The Best Time Is Whenever Nobody Cares
We launch our research offering on the crypto market amidst little interest from non-crypto advocates. We argue that this is historically the best time to add exposure to crypto.
Nuclear Nugget (FREE): 3 Questions For The Nuclear Space
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
The Great Game – Geopolitical Overview Q2 2023
If we learned anything from 2022, it’s that you need to keep your eye on geopolitics as an investor. Gone are the days of American hegemony – now, great power rivalry is back. We give our assessment of key geopolitical situations that investors need to be on top of in Q2 2023
5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Oil, Manufacturing Cycle, Labor and The USD
With the banking turmoil fading a bit, we thought we’d turn some of our attention elsewhere. It’s not like there is a lack of things to cover in global macro. Once again, we present our timeliest findings and assess how to interpret them.
Steno Signals #40 – The banking crisis is likely to accelerate in coming weeks
The banking crisis will continue to rage until the Fed and the ECB accept the underlying reason for the deposit flight. Banks cannot cope with an über-inverted yield curve, why cuts are needed asap to contain the situation. It will likely get worse before it gets better.