Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
The Chinese momentum has come to a sudden halt, and we think it is related to the front-loading of imports due to tariff fears. Could China become the victim of a wait-and-see approach until after New Years?
The latest Ifo data suggests an imminent recession in Germany, with expectations of slowing growth and inflation as autumn approaches. Despite concerning trends, high frequency and robust data provide a basis for cautious optimism, indicating stable conditions.
In a relatively quiet data week, we are on revisions watch. The second release of the US GDP report from the second quarter is out, and with the cat out of the bag the revisions will be heavily scrutinized.
The very late-cyclical pattern of a hawkish BoJ paired with a dovish Fed is now visible to everyone. How far will it take USDJPY lower, and will it pull the rug from under cross-asset markets?
Will Powell use the labor market as an excuse to cut rates quickly, while Ueda discusses raising rates in Japan? The QCEW-based revisions could give the Fed enough justification if they decide to move swiftly, even though the quality of QCEW data has been mixed lately.
We track the probability of rising growth, inflation, and liquidity momentum in real-time on a daily basis, and the developments since the start of July have been notably weak. This is the kind of setup needed to prompt central banks to restart their actions.
Chinese monetary authorities are fighting against gravitational forces when pushing for higher bond yields. Meanwhile, investors keep piling into bonds, while they are selling stocks. Credit growth is too weak to do otherwise!
We have a big inflation week ahead of us with US PPI & CPI inflation paired with final details from Europe. Meanwhile, we are watching the situation in Ukraine/Russia and the Nat Gas market.
Liquidity is stabilizing, and there are already signs that August will be better than July. We are aware of the risks in the labor markets, but we see strong signs of a cyclical bottom here, which may soften the impact of the uptick in unemployment.
The coming week is all about determining whether this is truly a recessionary meltdown or not, with the credit cycle and the ISM survey providing some much-needed clues. The credit cycle does NOT look recessionary as of now, but liquidity could turn abruptly worse.
Recessions differ in their impact depending on whether they are real or nominal, with the latter obviously being worse. Markets keep forgetting the nominal vs. real discussion this cycle, while the liquidity outlook is becoming increasingly mysterious.
The Fed looks likely to commence a cutting cycle in September, but can we use the typical cutting cycle playbook in EM- fixed income and Commodities? China is (potentially) wreaking havoc with the playbook!
Full focus on USDJPY ahead of a crucial central bank week. Will the BoJ confirm the turning tide and will get help by the Fed? In Europe, we are on inflation watch in France.
Equities are showing some signs of exhaustion, and it seems like there is still impending recession fear hidden beneath the surface. Is it time to run for the hills, or time to rethink?
The current sell-off is driven by position squaring not least in USDJPY. The turning tide on USDJPY will impact the EM space largely and also knock-out a few EM darlings in commodity space!
Are US cycle indicators rebounding right, left and center in coming months, and will inflation expectations follow? It sure looks like it from our model package. Meanwhile, don’t expect the Chinese rate cut to lead to metals buying.
What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.
Exports of Copper from China are THROUGH THE ROOF, which is a strong hint that the local consumption is on the floor. The CCP plenum has not addressed the short-term activity, meaning that the West will be flooded with Copper now.
There is currently a lot of focus on the US cycle and whether it is weakening sufficiently to prompt a 150-200 bps cutting cycle, and potentially even a 50 bp cut in September. Here are five charts showing that the US economy is improving.
A deep dive into our Biden and Trump basket along with a look at the sensitivities to the broad market and a look at small businesses should Trump get elected.
This week’s edition of Great Game following a remarkable weekend. While we cover the Trump assassination attempt elsewhere, today we’ll concentrate on the political repercussions and discuss other pertinent issues, such as the Chinese Policy Plenary.
Will the UK economy keep delivering out of the ordinary inflation numbers despite the disinflation seen elsewhere, and will the US consumer rise from the weather abyss seen in April/May? Let’s have a look at the week ahead!
All talk about Biden will likely fall silent after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Will a “Messianic” Trump impact the markets in the weeks ahead? Meanwhile, the hot PPI report on Friday served as a friendly reminder to still care about inflation.
Inflation data from the US will take center stage this week after a week of weak growth gauges. Will the US momentum look stagflationary or smell of temporary Goldilocks?
The recession chatter is back in the US, and for good reasons. The big question is whether it will matter at all for markets. Here’s a list of indicators you need to watch to assess when or if to turn bearish.
The annual ECB conference at Sintra is a strong forum for signaling a coordinated central bank direction. This year, the conference takes place amidst weak US economic surprises, with the Fed perceived as the most dovish central bank for 2025.
It seems like old hat to discuss the weakness in labor markets as the cyclical vibes are getting stronger out of the high-beta economies globally. Will the US cycle follow suit?
Is it time to bet against the USD based on relative surprises and relative inflation numbers? The week ahead is full of interesting inflation data.
Recession chasing has become an obsession for many, but how can we use the current bankruptcy trend to trade the macro cycle in a clever way? Here are the findings from our bankruptcy studies.
Will the UK Service inflation finally soften? The consensus once again hopes that service prices will de-accelerate in the UK, while Le Pen is trying to pour oil on troubled waters in French fixed income.