Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
Markets continue to celebrate what looks to be a perfect landing, while BoJ is seemingly preparing an answer to the post-hike weakness in JPY. Read about the other 3 things we watch this week here.
After having traveled to London last week, I am left with a vibe of a head fake reflation narrative. We are truly late in the cycle, which opens the door for super interesting bets.
The Li Keqiang Index posted its biggest monthly increase since 2005 in February, and multiple indicators are now blinking green for Chinese momentum.
Welcome to another edition of 5 things we watch where we take your through the 5 most important things that we have on the radar.
Recession chasing is getting increasingly weak as an investment strategy with fewer and fewer recessions around. Is the business cycle still alive and is it big enough to matter for markets?
The US CPI report came in hotter than expected yesterday, and today’s news on Japanese wage negotiations give the BoJ another reason to tweak the policy rate. Read about the 5 things that we watch this week here.
It feels reminiscent of early 2021 in many ways with a very hated rally that keeps getting liquidity fuel. Central banks remain biased towards easing and will allow the economy to reflate with liquidity.
Equities have been leading the way in the new year return-wise, but things are starting to indicate that other asset classes might also join the battle. We provide our take here.
Chris Waller hinted of a twist to the QE operations, which will likely impact the yield curve in the US. Will the Twist operation support the procyclical trends already seen?
Money growth has improved lately in the US, while there are trillions parked on the time deposit / MMF side-lines. If the Fed cuts rates into the current rally, we may see another 2021/2022 melt-up.
This week “5 Things We Watch” dives into the divergence between US and Europe inflation, OPEC continuing its cutting cycle, focus on shipping distortions in energy and Bitcoin boom.
One of our high conviction macro bets for this year is the major divergence between US and Euro inflation
Fed and ECB doves have ultimately killed the last market hopes of rate cuts during the spring from the big three central banks. What does it take to bring back the receiver case and the hopes of April/May cutting action?
***EU Finance Chiefs Seek More Defense Funding, But Question How** While policy makers in Europe are worried about financing in terms of fighting Russian aggression maybe they should start to look at production capacity as well. The backlogs ratio in German weapons...
A possible return of cyclical momentum paired with inflation has caught the attention of macro enthusiasts, but markets continue to celebrate the promised cuts from the Fed. Will sentiment change with tonight’s meeting minutes? We elaborate on the 5 things we look at this week!
Both input- and output prices have flared up in the US and the 2024 consensus on rates and inflation is blown into smithereens. What’s next?
The US CPI dealt a harsh blow to risk assets and those betting on disinflation, yet the trend of easing price pressures persists globally, as highlighted by the latest UK inflation report out this morning. Discover more in our “5 Things We Watch” below!
With an increasingly tricky timing of the first rate cut, we look for tradable trends in balance sheets instead. Balance sheet trends are easier to predict, which makes them very tradeable. Here is why!
The BLS will update inflation weights and seasonal adjustment factors on Friday, the labor market is still strong but weaknesses are emerging, oil dropped back below 80 despite solid fundamentals, Chinese equities look cheap and the US is nowhere near a recession (for now). We will cover it all today.
An extraordinary NFP report spooked markets on Friday, but is the report full of fake news? The NFP admittedly rhymes with the big picture observations. The US economy is accelerating, while Europe is stuck in the abyss.
Macro is on the move and we have diverging trends in inflation. Find our brief overview of the five themes that move markets the most this week in global macro.
The issues in the Red Sea are spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy. The impact from the Red Sea will not be seen short-term, but it may prove to be a sneaky and relatively lasting positive impact on inflation.
This week in 5 Things We Watch we are honing in on US vs EUR rates/inflation, China stimulus, Euro PMIs, Japanese equities and the Suez troubles.
It remains an overwhelming consensus that a strong cutting cycle is in the cards, but there is growing uncertainty around the inflation outlook that is yet to be reflected in market pricing. Money trends are not tight enough.
This week’s 5 things we watch with hot topics. This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions. We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.
The CPI is accelerating slightly in the US, but the gap between CPI and PCE seems to be growing. With the two directionally always aligned, a re-acceleration will also feed into PCE eventually.
Things are starting to look a little troublesome for the US economy in the mid-term as re-accelerating inflation and a weakening labor market is no easy cocktail for the Fed. Read more here together with some notes on freight rates, Japan and the new BTC ETF.
As Lorie Logan hinted on Friday, the QT policy is running on fumes at the Fed, which leads us to ask the question; “How do we trade the QT taper and the subsequent more benign bank reserve bank case?”
The Fed has abandoned the strategy of bringing bank reserves (substantially) down, which effectively means that QT is over. This happens amidst rising freight rates. Rising liquidity and inflation?
Limited upside in the ISM Manufacturing index as we await a dovish EUR-flation number coming in on Friday. There are plenty of things to look at in the global macro landscape this week.