Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
Happy New Year to all of you! Powell and Yellen will deliver a sizable “stealth QE” New Years gift to all of us, but mostly to banks. The liquidity addition will likely be one of the fastest on record. Here is why!
We round off 2023 with some what-ifs that could wrongfoot consensus in 2024. And maybe they are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
Risk assets are unlikely to sell off until the liquidity tricks come to a halt. Another trick up the Fed’s sleeve is now adding to USD liquidity ahead of New Years. A nice present from Powell and Yellen to banks!
Welcome to the last 5 Things We Watch for this year, which we have decided to make a 5 Things We Watch for 2024 with an outlook on key topics for 2024
The animal spirits will likely be fully unleashed by Powell’s pivot and this is exactly what’s needed to bring about the type of complacency that is needed to foster the actual recession that everyones been talking about for a long while.
With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
Judging from the most recent data evidence, it remains hard to see the cracks in the US economy even if they continue to appear in various forward-looking indicators. The oil demand was for example all-time-high in week 48.
Bonds and liquidity are taking the headlines as we most likely are approaching the end of the global hiking cycle. Find out what we currently look at here.
It is amusing to watch the flow of 2024 outlooks coming in. Suddenly hopes/expectations of soft landings are revised up left, right and center after an immaculate November. Price always leads the narrative, also in this case.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
The “soft landing” narrative has gained material momentum in the mainstream coverage ahead of 2024, which is a clear risk to the outlook. It always looks like a soft landing until the nosedive.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
Sudden sharp moves against the USD after Powell let go of the monetary steering wheel. Will the Fed take back control or has the USD already peaked? This is the key question in global macro before New Years.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
We are currently “riding” a few of the positive impulses from lower input prices over the past year, but the impulses for 2024 do not look good and the positivity is likely going to be short-lived with rates volatility back.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
The Fed introduced a new feedback loop, which is likely to limit the scope of this bear market rally. Remember that Q4 data usually looks really bad in an inflationary environment, while Q1 is the quarter of “inflation math”.
This week’s 5 Things has a strong focus on Japan and the BOJ while it also touches on the equity market and lends the reader a look at our portfolio.
The developments in the Middle East have refueled the recession fears and markets are getting concerned due to the spike in term premiums. Is this a first taste of the recession sell-off coming? Here is how we deal with it.
USDJPY will probably be THE pair to watch, as a break of the 150 handle will be catastrophic for risk sentiment and the path for BoJ. Read what else to look out for in global macro in our 5 things to watch.
From the ongoing depletion of the Chinese US Treasury holdings, to the BoJ’s impact on global markets concluding with the $-liquidity impact of the ON RRP facility. Here’s a list of 10 MUST watch charts in macro.
While tension keeps mounting in the Middle East, we’ve decided to broaden the global macro-horizon. From rising pressures in Japanese policy and the preceding Asian currencies to monetary trends in EUR and USD, and everything in between. We break down this week’s most noteworthy developments.
Recession models are mostly based on manufacturing, which currently rebounds leading to the conclusion that the recession risk recedes? But are actual recession risks rather on the rise?
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our 5 Things We Watch, where we as always run through 5 interesting topics in global macro relevant to the current and near-term market actions. We’ll as usual be short and concise, covering what has already happened this week, as well as what will happen next.
Public deficits are running wild, while the risk of another war that needs ongoing funding is growing. US households have net bought loads of US Treasuries, but will they continue in light of ongoing disappointments?
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
We know the playbook from last year if the energy squeeze is just getting started. Rising demand/activity in the energy-intensive industry is a negative for the overall asset market in regions with scarce supply. Parity up next?
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
Markets are finally sensing that something is rotten in the economy. We have a look at what to stay on top of in the weeks to come.
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!