Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our weekly edition of 5 Things We Watch, where we take you through the 5 things we are currently keeping an eye on in the global macro landscape.
It is no secret that we have never been major fans of the overfitted ESG narrative in investing, but the market is now starting to chime in. Windmills suffer while Oil gains. Who would have thought a few years ago?
Our services week is hot and running, where we share our take on the rebound in manufacturing amidst a weakening in the services sector. Today we will share some of the takes we have looked at, as well as what lies ahead
Sticky inflation, renewed issues with high energy costs and a light recession in the making already. Europe screams stagflation and even the ECB admits to it. Meanwhile, we are edging closer to the actual payroll recession in the US.
The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.
The “no-landing” camp is getting increasingly crowded and even if we do not rule such a scenario out, we find that the probability of outcomes is starting to favor a more conservative approach to risk taking.
What’s up in energy markets, will European inflation be below 2% before year-end, should we expect trouble to hit US real estate and how about the Yuan and its implications for global markets? Our two cents here.
The doom and gloom in China is suddenly back with a vengeance and everyone seems convinced that China is now in a structural decline driven by an embedded balance sheet recession and extremely weak demographics. But how bad is it really?
Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. Since we have not covered much else than China this week and the fact that it remains one of the key macro stories we thought we would exclusively zoom in on 5 things we watch related to China.
Either the commodity market is 100% wrong or else China is amidst a rebound. What does that mean for the hopes of getting inflation back to target? And will it impact the yield curve? Here are the three most important questions for investors right now!
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
The Bank of Japan has fueled a global curve steepening and the US Treasury is forced to emphasize the trend with substantial ramifications for liquidity, rates, FX and equities. Here is how we play it!
The US credit rating downgrade is making the rounds, but is it even relevant? We take a look at the empirical data alongside updates on the five things we watch currently in global macro.
We are now one step closer to a complete normalization of the monetary policy in Japan and I guess it is safe to say that the only thing that is normal in this cycle is that monetary policy returns to “normal”. The boomer trades are back!
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
We are at macro crossroads as markets start to chase a cyclical rebound in the economy. Is a cyclical rebound a true possibility or is this the famous fatamorgana of a soft landing just before the actual recession kicks in?
The USD has weakened materially over the past weeks, which could be an early harbinger of an improving growth cycle. If cyclical growth is indeed rebounding, right about everyone will be wrongfooted. Here is how we position for it..
Positioning and price patterns reveal that the pain trade is higher rates- and higher equities, while the recession is slowly but surely being called off by the consensus. Here are four reasons why everyone misunderstood the recession risk and why it is still alive…
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Expectations are real, while the reality is nominal! Soft data keeps getting the reality wrong, which is probably a phenomenon that relates to the extreme spread between nominal- and real figures. Will this issue keep wrong-footing everyone?
Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
Incentives will matter a lot in coming weeks and months if the Fed has actually paused. Interest rate volatility is likely to come down, which mechanically leads to increased risk appetite.
The Central Bank Bonanza continues with our live coverage of the ECB Liveblog. Remember to post your questions below
Welcome to the Central Bank Bonanza with meetings of both the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan. We’re covering it all live here on stenoresearch.com. Ask your questions below!
Should the Fed skip/pause on Wednesday, we’d argue that market positioning will quickly unwind and turn optimistic. The soft-landing narrative is back on the agenda and all the mistakes of the past are likely to be repeated.
When headline inflation wanes fast, real wages grow, while corporate profits shrink. This is now the base case for H2-2023 while Chinese and Turkish political developments MUST be watched from a macro perspective. Here is why!
AI is mana sent from heaven, while McCarthy and Biden have allegedly agreed on a debt ceiling deal. We continue to favor positions with a positive beta to slowing inflation despite the recent concerns around stickier for longer.
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