Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
Given the rumors surrounding the Chinese reopening story we thought that we would do a deep dive into the China story and look at what is moving. Can we even expect to see a reopening?
The REAL world is back. China ponders reopening, while Meta struggles. The stuff that got us into this bubble, will likely not lead us out of this bubble. Buy Industrials vs. Tech.
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
It is time to be humble about inflation. It is tricky to time the peak, why a basket with embedded windshields, should inflation re-accelerate, may be the best choice.
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad than feared by many. Here is why!
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.
Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.
We have talked over and over about supply during the past 12 months, but it is now time to talk about demand. Go short the business cycle and buy USD.
The current supply squeeze is one of the worst seen ever. The disconnect between demand fundamentals and food- and energy prices is simply eye-catching. Watch the downside, but not yet.
Duration has been “killed” by financial markets over the past year, which carries repercussions for all asset classes. How can you track duration across assets and is the duration sell-off over?
Inflation runs markets currently as it seems as if growth has become irrelevant for policy makers, but will such a narrative pass a reality test? I doubt it. Growth will re-enter the limelight soon!
Inflation is not going to peak in Q1 as the most recent price developments in energy- and food prices will lead inflation much higher in Q2. So, the question is now; How do you trade stagflation?
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
A lot of investors are rightfully scared that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. It almost never pays to bet on geopolitical turbulence and the current situation may prove to be a decent opportunity.
The current inflation is mainly a result of lagged consequences of the pandemic trends, but as these trends are about to reverse, we may experience the disinflationary part of the pandemic soon.
Everyone currently panic about high inflation and a weak labour supply, which has catapulted front-end pricing central banks higher. I would prefer to not take a bet against gravity!