The Great Game

We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position.

We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak.

Trump’s tariffs talks have now been called a bluff but for how long? Get your popcorn out and have your broker on speed dial because the next year will be 2017 on steroids.

While global manufacturing trends are improving slightly beneath the surface, the Chinese economy has taken another turn south after stimulus efforts failed to deliver (again). There are not a lot of positive signs for commodities at the moment.

China is likely preparing stimulus in size to combat the tariffs from the Trump administration, but what are the effects on commodities? As always, it’s more complicated than it might look.

We are fading Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as we see them as negotiation tactics more than actual threats of real implementation.

Natural Gas prices are back in the front seat once again with TTF rallying decently since the start of October. Is it bound to continue? We don’t think so.

This week’s The Drill will focus on the reflation story and how it is the growth narrative that is dominating the inflation narrative. Basically the growth impulse stories from the US and China are the loudest whilst Europe is dragging, but no reasons to go long just yet.

Oil markets are in free fall now as it seems like the Biden admin has begged Netanyahu not to escalate things ahead of the election.

China is getting slaughtered this morning as the “stimmie drug” is fizzling while geopolitical risk in crude is waning. We keep a negative bias on commodity markets as the China trade is fading.

It is a market on autopilot that buys Copper and the likes because China is handing out vouchers. We remain unconvinced of a China-fuelled commodity rally here. Here is why.

Our thoughts on the PBOC’s stimulus implementations along with thoughts on the situation in Lebanon.

Last week marked the largest week-over-week drop in freight rates since late 2022, as key factors driving previous rate increases are slowing down. With China facing ongoing economic malaise and global growth weakening, the future outlook for freight rates remains uncertain.

Crude prices haven’t responded to output delays as hoped, and we wonder whether that will prompt the alliance to change its strategy.

Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.

We take a closer look at the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East with tensions and market risks at very high levels

Here’s a quick rundown of the most important geopolitical risks right now!

Risk assessment of the situation in Lebanon and Venezuela

Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far. Now, as we discussed  yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion. I would still put Kamala at around 30% chance of winning the White House – especially due to all the uncertainty of this election cycle. The next debate is not until September 10th. so even if polls don’t swing in Kamala’s favor, she still has that joker up her sleeve. Usually, we wouldn’t expect debates to swing elections massively, but one debate performance just killed the candidacy of an incumbent President, so never say never! Now, while we had some grasp on what a second term Biden or Trump presidency would look like, most investors are in the dark over what to expect should Kamala win in November. In this piece, That’s important for two obvious reasons – 1) what to plan for if she wins and 2) which sectors could see movement if/when polls temporarily or permanently swing in Kamala’s favor. So without further ado – here’s my five predictions on what Kamalanomics might look like. 1. A tourist at the helm The main point here is that Kamala is NOT an economics major and has very little experience in managing the economy. She is a lawyer and former Attorney General, […]

We cover the three recent elections and what they mean for investors and geopolitics

With Biden nosediving in polls, France’s far right party is surging in the First round of legislative elections. What will this mean for markets?

In our weekly geopolitical overview, we cover Israel-Hezbollah tensions, attacks on a beach in Crimea and an exciting political week ahead.

Tesla is emerging as the clear winner of the EU-China trade war so far – why is that? And why are markets so panicky over the French election?