The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
The potential for a soft EUR-flation week paired with spill-overs in the Red Sea leads us to implement a few new trades in the portfolio.
Evergrande has now formally transitioned from a state of de facto default to a legal liquidation. How will the markets and Beijing act to the latest ruling?
Germany is the biggest inflation battleground in January. Volatility in forecasts is enormous. Will Germany deliver a deflationary shock compared to expectations?
With Trump looking as a sure-fire bet to take the Republican nomination, how is the voter demographics poised for the eventual Biden-Trump rematch?
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
If it quacks and walks like a duck, it probably is a duck. The same can be said about the disinflationary wave in Europe, which got more confirmation with today’s full Ifo report.
We see downside risks to the ECBs growth-, wage and inflation forecast for Q1. Is a March cut in play? Or is the market right that they will have to take another dovish step in March before cutting in April?
Over the last month, we have covered the shipping troubles in the Red Sea along with the potential consequences for markets. As we are of the opinion that this topic is very important we thought that we would post a piece recapping where we are and what to expect going forward.
We remain below early consensus expectations in Germany. Here is our latest set of forecasts for January HICP numbers ahead of the release next week.
Stopped out of utilities, but the rest of the portfolio performs nicely
The Japanese Nikkei 225 has, apart from yesterday’s move lower, been on a streak of strength since the turn of the calendar. So, with its Asian peer on the ropes and the toned down remarks from members of the BoJ regarding inflation, is the index a buy from here?
The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months. Here is why!
The drivers of the recent sell-off in Chinese equities mirror the weakness of the Real Estate sector and the two are inherently interlinked. The question is whether the leadership will respond to the sell-off in the same way they did during the Real Estate crisis last year. In such case, fundamentals will remain unadressed. Read our takeaway below
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
Expectations for a rebound in EUR PMIs are building ahead of Wednesday, but we would like to remind you that January PMIs received historically large positive seasonal revisions last year. It does not bode well for January PMIs this year.
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
CPI, PPI, HICP, or PCE? The inflation measures are plenty and each best serves different purposes. However, the varying methodologies and emphases on components prompt clearly deviating prints – AND allow for logical predictions.
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
Don’t forget to join our Premium Q&A on Tuesday – either 9AM CET or 9AM EST depending on your time zone and calendar. We’ll give you all the latest on inflation, the Red Sea, liquidity and everything else you’d expect from us. Join us via these links: Americas (9AM EST): https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84469410952 Asia/Europe (9AM CET): https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85493369343
The liquidity conditions will likely worsen in US Treasury markets, and it is now a topic that is being addressed continuously by Fed members. Will the Fed opt to “suspend” the supplementary leverage ratio again?
We have updated our HICP models for all of the four major Eurozone economies and find both the ECB and the HICP inflation fixing to be too hawkish. January looks particularly soft.
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Eurozone inflation looks uber dovish in the coming months and the ECB looks ready to commence its cutting cycle in the spring. And rightly so given our own forecasts. Looking on the other side of the Summer, however, the picture changes with a set up for another round of inflationary pressures.
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
Iowa only matters for DeSantis, New Hampshire is crucial for Haley, and South Carolina is important for everyone.
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
UK core inflation is typically hot in December due to a spike in services costs ahead of Christmas, but there are signs of a weaker-than-usual season in our numbers. Read more here.
Iran is now more directly getting involved in the Red Sea after another week of freight rate increases. We are now seeing spill-overs to parts of the energy space.
Shippingwatch.dk stopped us out of our Shipping longs, but we are betting on three strong liquidity trades for our portfolio. See more here.