We add further duration to the portfolio in a laggard curve!
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Watch Series
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
EIA Nugget: Another STRONG demand week for Energy in the US
The energy demand is rebounding in the US and on some metrics we are reaching all time high. The supply side better remain strong. Here is our EIA Watch!
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Central Bank Review: Powell, a genius or a madman? 2024 looks like a year of fat tails
Powell and the Fed aim for the soft landing despite all the Volcker-nonsense of 2022/2023. Will inflation ever drop to 2% if the animal spirits are unleashed again? Tails look fat for 2024.
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Bull Steepening Watch – Is lower yields really what risk assets want?
Nothing comes for free, and a bull steepening of the yield curve is typically not great for risk assets. Will this time be different? Markets better hope so.
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COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race
The COP28 nuclear treaty is the latest chapter in the story about the U.S.-China weapons race in clean tech.
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Trade Alert: Stopped out of our energy bet
Speculators seem to have won the race in crude oil, as the supply cuts hasn’t outweighed slowing demand
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USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise
Read the main takeaways from today’s CPI report here, which came in slightly above expectations. The details of the report are hawkish, but as per usual inflation data is up for interpretation. We stick to long USD and paid front-end USD rates here.
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US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB
This cycle has been notoriously tricky to navigate and there are odd signs of a cyclical pick-up in prices, wages and growth momentum, while certain recession indicators flash red. NFIB adds to the stagflationary confusion ahead of 2024.
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Energy Cable #49: Ouch …..
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
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Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
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USD-flation Watch: Not a disinflationary home run as in Europe
Black month trends look less extreme in the US and in some categories, price pressures have even increased markedly versus November last year. We see inflation risks clearly tilted to the upside of consensus.
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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
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Trade Alert: A defensive yet cyclical tilt
We see cyclicality as overcooked in equity space, but find ways to exploit the stretched positioning.
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Inflation Watch: Another deflation shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway are under the loop!
Another set of soft inflation numbers is set to be released from Europe in the coming weeks. We see both GBP and NOK inflation surprisingly low for November, while Swedish evidence is a tad more mixed.
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EIA Watch: ALL TIME HIGH Oil demand, but so what?
The EIA report shows extremely solid demand (as we anticipated for November) but yet price action is not supportive at all in the energy space. What is wrong?
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Macro Regime Indicator: What technically rising liquidity means for your portfolio
Markets keep celebrating bad news, but are they right or wrong, and can the current macro regime give any explanation on these recent developments? As always, we assess liquidity, inflation and growth to ultimately showcase our model’s allocation suggestions.
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Trade Alert: Wrongfooted by Ueda and Gas
We cut our losses in JPY and Nat Gas trades.
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Trade Alert: Switching duration bet
We book a 13.7% profit in our EUR duration bet and see better risk/reward in another curve!
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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical recession to an real one?
The ECB Hawks have taken significant steps towards a forthcoming policy pivot. But what if they remain on the backfoot?
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Positioning Watch – Everything better turn out the way markets want it
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
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Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas longs to Scholz: “Thank you!”
Happy Monday to everybody from a cold Copenhagen where we will quickly touch upon the OPEC meeting before we reveal why we are thanking Olaf Scholz.
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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OPEC, EIA and Nat Gas Watch: A lukewarm but bullish supply cut
The Saudis got parts of OPEC+ to play ball, but the uncertainty looms after hints of non-compliance emerging already. If the deal is complied with, the oil market will remain tight!
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Euroflation Nugget: Deep deflation tomorrow?
With Spanish and German inflation numbers out today, it’s almost safe to say that Eurostat will deliver a dovish number tomorrow as well.
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G3 Central Bank Watch: More fuel to the 2007 = 2023 analogy
We are in many ways experiencing 2007 all over. The BoJ is considering a move on the policy rate, the ECB is in a hawkish denial, while the Fed is undeniably still the most sensible “pauser” of the three.
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EUR Inflation Watch: Another dovish surprise due to black week/month?
Black week adjustments in consensus forecasts look surprisingly small. We see great value in betting on a dovish surprise to the November inflation data from Europe. Here is why!
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Energy Cable: The review that became a preview!
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
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Ifo Nugget: Should we believe the numbers?
Today we got the full Ifo report which allows us to refresh our Ifo models and take the temperature of the German economy.
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Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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Trade alert: Fueling up!
We find a strong risk/reward setup in the energy space again..
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