We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
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Watch Series
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
Premium Q&A Session: Live recording November 22nd
Did you miss it or do you want to watch again? The Recording is now uploaded. Enjoy!
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EIA and OPEC Watch: Depending on Nigeria and Iran
The OPEC meeting was postponed, likely as Saudi Arabia is dissatisfied with being a one -man-army in the oil supply battle. Meanwhile, EIA data (mostly) continues to support our bullish year-end thesis.
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Out of the Box #24 : Too little too late Powell?
A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
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USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?
The soft inflation report from the US led to a substantial sell-off in the USD alongside weaker real rates, but is the tide turning for the USD? Our models are not convinced yet.
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Trade Alert: Keeping USD longs, but switching the counterpart
As November data looks to come in hotter than expected, we find the USD heavily oversold when you take into account the potential comeback towards year-end.
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US rates nugget: 4 charts on why November data will reignite the hawks
The USD weakness has been striking over the past trading week. Markets have extrapolated the softness in the US CPI from October, but is it fair? US data could perform strongly until New Year’s due to seasonality.
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PREMIUM Q&A Tomorrow
Remember our monthly Q&A tomorrow!
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Energy Cable #47: Price always leads narrative
Price always leads the narrative and the oil bears were very vocal last week. That is typically a good timing to consider a counter trade as we have done so far with good luck. Here is why!
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Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
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Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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Trade alert: Taking profits in Germany
We have closed a profitable long with a double digit return
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Trade Alert: Betting on Tourism and EIA-mistakes
We add 2 new trades to our portfolio to take advantage of seasonal patterns and data mistakes.
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EIA Watch: September weakness was fake news. Time to buy oil?
The latest EIA report once again shows that September was just a data glimpse, and that oil demand is still going relatively strong in the US. Long oil a bet for the last month of 2023?
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US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but are we out of the woods yet?
The immediate shutdown threat has been averted, although the issue of war funding remains unresolved for President Biden. The question remains: is the political gridlock alleviated? Read our brief take below
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Something for your Espresso: It’s either recession or restocking from here
Most of the signals from our models hint that the weakness through October was a data glimpse and that 2023 will end on a strong seasonal note before a weak 2024. Either we are right or else recession is looming.
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EUR Watch: Damned if you do until you are damned if you don’t
What is the path of least resistance for EUR assets here? The Eurozone keeps combatting scarce energy supplies paired with weak production.
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Trade Alert: Getting out of Italy
Closing the short leg of our Germany vs. Italy spread trade.
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Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans are OK for now
The weather is playing ball with the German electricity aid package as hydro storages are elevated while Nat Gas storages are almost full. Even if the German heavy industry starts
demanding 15-20% more electricity, the troubles are a few months away.
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Positioning Watch – The cocktail of heavy logs in both equities and bonds
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
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Trade Alert: Canada surprising positively
Our Canadian short bet have surprised positively, forcing us to close the position
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US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further fuel for the market rally
Highlights and initial thoughts on today’s print as well as our considerations on the path ahead.
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UK CPI Watch: No path to 2% unless inflation deflates on a monthly basis
The UK CPI report will be put under scrutiny tomorrow morning after “hot” wage numbers released earlier today. The report is likely going to look very soft, but there is still a long way to go until 2% is reached.
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Energy Watch: Time to buy oil again?
OPEC increased the demand forecast and continues to highlight paper market shorts as the reason for the weakness in oil markets. We largely agree but also see signs of exhaustion coming out of Saudi Arabia.
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Energy Cable #46: Scholz to the rescue!
German politicians have agreed to subsidize energy bills for the heavy industry, which will likely lead to an increased demand for a scarce commodity. Is this the right timing to enter long bets in Natural Gas again?
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USD CPI Watch: The tricky path to 2% despite a soft report
The US CPI report will land in our inbox tomorrow, and while tomorrow’s print could look promising for the disinflation-crowd, the path toward 2% is more tricky than first anticipated.
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EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition victory in Poland opens door for Ukraine in the EU?
On Wednesday, the European commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Now Ukraine must secure the endorsements of member states – not least Poland’s incoming government who will be decisive for Ukraine’s future with the Union.
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play
Data providers have struggled with winter seasonality in recent years due to lockdowns through 2020-2022. Seasonal adjustments are likely to drag UP activity in December and DOWN in January.
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Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?
As the EIA data is postponed until next week, we look at other factors of relevance for the supply/demand equation in the energy space. Nat Gas bulls have more reasons to be upbeat than Oil bulls, but is the demand so weak for oil?
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