The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
As the macro picture is starting to look a bit more gloomy, risk-assets doesn’t look as compelling despite the decent liquidity picture. Read more to find out what which 2 trades we are adding to our portfolio.
The heating season is yet to really turn into a heating season and warm temperatures have wreaked slightly havoc with our Nat Gas bet so far. Beneath the surface, the fundamental bullishness is brewing and our models double down on the positivity!
Massa takes the first round but war is not over. We provide our view on the state of affairs in Argentina from a risk-taking perspective
We were stopped out of our FX Oil-Proxy a short while ago.
A volatile week with plenty on the plate for investors. Biden’s push for war funding while Capitol Hill remains in gridlock. How are the bets stacking up? Dive into our weekly positioning watch below to find out
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
The Fed no longer does QT in practice as they likely fear the repercussions for the yield curve should they allow USD liquidity to truly dwindle. The ECB on the other hand remains steady in bringing liquidity down. EUR-flation will drop faster than USD-flation.
Treasuries have tumbled as 10- and 30-year yields touched their highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps steaming ahead. Is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds or will supply surmount demand, and can the USD extend its streak of strength?
The BoJ will have to revise the inflation forecasts UP again later this month ultimately signaling that inflation will be above 2% for the next two years. Global bond markets should start to care about the BoJ again!
Monetary trends drive private credit. A steeper curve will bring back the money momentum in the US, while we see diverging trends in Europe and the US.
Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?
There is no shortage of depressing data coming out of the UK in recent quarters. The question is whether we’ve seen the worst of stagflation. Maybe, but be careful what you wish for
The latest NFP report erased most rumors of an upcoming downfall in the labor market, but it might not be as picture perfect as predicted by analysts.
In the wake of this tragic situation that is still unfolding, investors are grappling with the need to understand and navigate the turmoil. See our main Positioning takeaways here
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
Rising manufacturing PMIs, sticky labour markets and re-accelerating services inflation in some categories. Have we all underestimated the risk of the Fed continuing on a path of higher(er) for longer again?
A small upside surprise in today’s CPI report led by energy and shelter, while broad commodities, transportation and food prices continue to disinflate. A nothing burger or something to worry about? Read our take here.
The monthly report from OPEC and the weekly report from the EIA are both out later today. A day of reckoning for oil markets and we see a decent risk/reward in betting on a price bullish surprise.
The US inflation report is likely to look soft and risks are on the low side of consensus estimates, especially for core inflation. The medium-term issue is that our indicators hint of a bottom above 2%.
Was the entire price drop in the oil price driven by EIA data on flawed assumptions? Will the renewed turmoil in the Middle East revive the oil bet and is the Natural Gas market the new market to watch as an energy bull? Here is your weekly letter on the subjects.
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
There has been a load of discussions on the timing of the recession, but just as the consensus narrative is shifting towards a soft landing scenario, the recession risk is probably actually on the rise. Here is why.
With the AFD becoming the second-largest party in national polls and yesterday’s election successes in Bavaria and Hesse, right-wing populism is on the rise in Europe. Migration plays a crucial role, and we’ve examined its impact on the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Germany. Read the full nugget below.
The market opening hints of a stronger USD, higher energy prices, and slightly rising long bond yields. Is the opening price data backed up by empirical evidence? Let’s have a look.
As we review the events of this eventful week, it unfortunately appears to conclude with a tragic development, as we find ourselves reporting on the potential beginning of yet another conflict.
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
I have basically spent most of the day (outside of meetings) assessing the EIA report from yesterday and the more I look, the more I find the plot to be thickening. Could the EIA report be an outlier? Massive news in case. Here is all of the data!
Markets have acted out of sync with fundamentals for a while, but can the latest weakness across most markets be explained by developments in either liquidity, inflation, or growth?
We have looked at historical macro data to assess how assets perform around and in a recession, and if we are actually heading towards one.
The weekly EIA report revealed seasonal weakness in the demand for Gasoline, but how big of a deal is it? We have taken a deep look at the numbers and only have one word available. “Ouch!”