Our expectations for the big central banks this week presented in a one chart + one-paragraph format!
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Watch Series
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus
Betting against Europe is becoming increasingly popular, but the energy trade is yet to become overcrowded. Here is the weekly positioning report.
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US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?
Inflation in the word recession? Some have stubbornly called for a doomslike recession while others see the economy firing on all cylinders. Our data-based weigh in on the topic.
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Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
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EUR watch: Why the ECB outlook is 100% off in 4 charts
We consider the ECB assumptions to be off and see a much “weaker” ECB commitment going forward compared to the Fed. Here is why the ECB is off in 4 charts!
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PPI Nugget: New Pressures On Producer Prices To Come?
Prices paid to US producers increased in August by the most in more than a year largely due to energy. Is relative US vs EU market pricing off? Here are the key takeaways!
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Wage Nugget: Are Unions Grabbing The Last Chunk Before Exit?
We have noticed a trend of unionized labor proposing aggressive wage and working demands, thus we thought this would be a good time for a quick wage nugget.
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US CPI Review – 10% increase in Energy Inflation!
Energy inflation is back on the board, and it will soon spread to PPI and the other components if current trends persist. We take you through the most important take-aways from the report.
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EUR Watch – The ECB will soon reveal their true inflation vs growth preferences
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
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The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
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Manufacturing Nugget: The Inflation Refueling Act?
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) intended to deliver both an expedited ‘green’ transition as well as a +$300 bn deficit reduction. But, what are the measurable effects circa a year later?
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Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation
The Fed is likely to conclude that the cocktail of rising headline inflation and dropping core inflation is enough for a skip, but by refusing to act on emerging renewed price pressures, they will likely let the market do the dirty work!
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Conclusion on Services Week: Our take on equities and the labor market
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
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Macro Nugget: US Banks
The banking crisis theme seems to be losing steam in the media. But is it really over yet? 4 charts on the trouble
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Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally
All eyes are on the Eurozone CPI next week as the USD keeps wrecking through global markets. How are traders positioned as we enter the last month of Q3? Read our takeaways below
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Portfolio Watch: Anyone still in doubt of the US superiority?
Hail King USD! This week has been all about the US exceeding expectations, while the opposite is happening in the Euro area and to a certain extent in China.
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Services Nugget: How do the Central Banks react?
We are well under way in our Services Week with our focus on Services and in this note we wanted to highlight the issues central banks could face in a scenario in which manufacturing outpaces services.
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Out of the Box #18: Time for the second inflation wave? AAAAAAH!
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
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Out of the Box #17 How would US exceptionalism flip the table for the RoW?
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
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Services Week: What to buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
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Real Estate Nugget: Volume leads price – bad news for 2024 still
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
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Energy Watch: Can oil rally 25% further in Q4?
There is a sudden smell of 2021/2022 in the air again as Muftis and Zars suddenly have the upper hand in energy markets again. Can Bin Salman make life difficult for the West in Q4?
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Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?
While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?
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The Energy Cable #36 – Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
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Macro Nugget: 3 Charts on US Labour market
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
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Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
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Positioning Watch: Is the market prepared for a Manufacturing rebound?
There are early signs of manufacturing rebounding in the US amidst weakness in labor markets, weak European growth and yet another Chinese credit event. Is the market prepared for a cyclical uptick in the US despite all of the turmoil? We take a look here.
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US Labour Market Nugget: Services weakening clearly now
Weak hiring including negative revisions, Services much weaker relative to trend, but Manufacturing is rebounding. Everything we planned for!
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Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services
Everything in our US model portfolio screams that we need to continue to tilt the portfolio in a cyclical direction. The signal is just not confirmed across the Pond(s) in Europe and China.
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UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?
The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.
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