The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
Our indicators suggest that ISM Manufacturing may suddenly accelerate faster than thought possible… A cyclical upswing on the cards in the US? Watch out tomorrow.
This week we had the anticipated German Ifo report come out in full, and while most parameters did not surprise, some might just be worth a closer inspection – an inspection we’ve decided to carry out
Are any of the major economies weak enough to consider receiving interest rates? We look across the major rates spectrum to find receiver/payer value and find the UK to be the odd one out!
We just got the release of Spanish and German Regional CPI this morning, and with the two making up 40% of the EU HICP basket, there might be some information to extract from today’s prints.
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
The IFO Survey from Germany was a mixed bag of goodies but it emphasizes the trends seen lately. Germany is likely in a disinflationary recession already.
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
With the inflation report coming out this Thursday, we of course provide you with an actionable take on the path for EZ HICP and whether now might be the time to buy euro bonds
The monthly money growth in Europe continues to look dire. Will it impact GDP with a time-lag as per usual? Then 2024 looks, ahem, recessionary.
Bears have been in the front-seat this month just as we had forewarned. Now, it appears that the tough price action is beginning to have an impact on overall sentiment. Will it last?
Our short and sweet observations from the Jackson Hole opening remarks from Jay Powell. To us, hopes of an explicit pause have been postponed further down the road after this speech. A few highlights: 1) Data dependency is still the name of the game – NO promises for further meetings, meaning that consensus does not exist 2) Shelter costs are highlighted, which to me can be seen as a sign that Powell needs an excuse to hike further 3) The Fed is attentive to the risk of the economy running above trend still and monitors the housing rebound closely 4) The lack of spill-overs from the slide in job openings to the unemployment rate puzzles the Fed and they want more data. All in all the Fed is not commited to raising the rate from here and that is a slightly less aggressive message than the dot plot that included another 25bp hike in June. But between the lines especially three observations make the USD bull case interesting still: Shelter A lot of focus on shelter and a lot of focus on market rents. The Fed is much more focused on shelter than Powell admitted to through the spring. Ex shelter, inflation is already gone, so this is a sign that they will continue on a path towards slightly higher rates. Chart 1: Inflation is already gone ex shelter why Powell needs to focus on shelter again The economy may not be cooling as expected Powell noted signs of above […]
A brief nugget about today’s headline Ifo numbers. We’ll release an article about the full report next week.
We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.
Big BRICS meeting in South Africa this week … So inviting Saudi Arabia et al. into the club is one big positive EV right? Well not necessarily
The Jackson Hole conference is a very binary event with the theme of the conference being “Structural Shifts In The Economy”. Will the Fed take the opportunity to talk about a higher inflation target or will they try to kill all hopes of lower interest rates in to 2024? It is either or!
Will Europe be the next shoe to drop in the Chinese RE soap opera? Here is how we position for lagged spill-overs to Europe.
‘When China sneezes the West catches a cold’. We’ve said that before, but who is really most reliant on a well-functioning Chinese economy? Europe is now clearly the next shoe to drop. Could long cyclical Asia vs short Cyclical Europe be a strong RV trade?
Powell is getting ready for Jackson Hole just as the attention ought to be focused on The Hill as McCartney may be forced to kill the Treasury Put
S&P Global US Manufacturing out later today and we get to test our thesis on relative signs of strength in the PMI numbers.
Is the Chinese malaise an issue for energy bulls? Let’s have a look at market fundamentals and price action amidst the ongoing melt-down in Chinese construction.
US inflation is already gone ex shelter, while EUR inflation remains elevated. Using simple lead/lag patterns from PPIs and US inflation lead to the conclusion that EUR inflation will actually reach
The weakest are the most vulnerable: The Matthew principle is in full effect both among companies and consumers in this cycle
Ueda and Kishida met earlier today, allegedly to discuss currency developments among other things. Despite efforts to move away from the ultra-easy monetary policy, the BoJ remains as active as EVER..
Amidst continued unease in the Chinese economy and with Evergrande having just filed for Chapter 15 protection, we’ve decided to take a closer look at the state of US real estate. Trouble to come or in fact time to buy?
A rebound in CNY, a much weaker JPY and higher USD rates. Sounds like the PBoC doom-loop to us! Here is how it works
We are closing 2 trades today. Read below for context
USDCNH above or below 7.20 changes the global macro regime and leads to a rotation in case it continues. Are you prepared accordingly?
It is interesting to note that China has been deemed uninvestable by many over the past year or two and that positioning is non-existent in CNY assets. Will that make a bottom easier to form in Chinese assets or more difficult? Our weekly positioning watch is out!
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context