Energy markets remain calm despite a truly turbulent weekend in Russia. We look at the fundamentals of both Gas and Oil below.
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Watch Series
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
EUR Liquidity Watch – The ECB will have to punish governments more..
The ECB tries to incentivize governments to withdraw their funds from the ECB to mitigate a complete catastrophe when the QT race really begins at double speed from July and onwards. Will they succeed, and what will the ramifications be? Find out here.
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Positioning Watch: War in Russia? Markets are forward-looking but never see it coming
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
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Portfolio Watch: Bears & Hawks
With today’s recessionary PMI numbers, hawkish central bank rhetoric and a shift in price action, there are good reasons to believe that positioning might flip from now on, as investors will likely prefer bonds over equities.
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FX Watch: The Scandinavian FX massacre
Norges Bank finally made a decent attempt at underpinning the NOK, but the issue is that rates don’t really matter for the NOK. They matter a bit more for the SEK, which makes a SEK long tempting ahead of next week. Is the Scandi bloodbath over?
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Stock Market Watch: Time to call off the Recession?
Large parts of the stock market have rallied recently, and whispers of a new bull market are steadily surfacing. Has the time come for caving in to bulls, or are we just seeing the results of impatience after 1,5 years of limbo?
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Out of the box #8: The circle of life (and inflation)
We discuss the line of events in every single inflation cycle, so allow us to introduce the circle of life (and inflation). It is likely that we are at the juncture of falling output prices, which depending on margins will lead to lower consumer prices.
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5 Things We Watch – The AI bubble, EUR Liquidity, Pivot hopes, the bull case for markets and UK Inflation
With the recent central bank bonanza, pivot hopes and the ongoing rally in equities, there are plenty of things to take a look at in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’. Follow along, as we share our thoughts on what to look out for in the weeks to come.
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The Energy Cable #25 – Mixed Signals
Welcome to the weekly Energy Cable! A lot of bearish demand chatter has been seen over the week but does it all add up? Meanwhile the Europeans have once again contained supply of Natural Gas. The interesting times in Energy continue. Tune in here!
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ECB Watch: 4 charts to watch on the ECB pricing
Now that the dust has settled after last week’s ECB meeting, we look at the four charts that are likely to guide the ECBs decision-making process over the summer. July and done?
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US Bank Watch – 3 arguments for the inevitability of more banking failures
The higher-for-longer crowd has rightfully been celebrating as the short end of the curve has reached pre-SVB levels. We find that structurally nothing has changed and that 10 years of ZIRP being replaced by unprecedented and unpredictable rate hikes is still bound to bring more pressure on banking and here’s why.
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Positioning Watch: Like a dog chasing its own tail
Positioning is a MUST watch now that the Fed has skipped/paused. The risk of positioning getting crowded over the next couple of months is high and we aim at riding the wave until positioning tells us not to.
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Portfolio Watch: Investors are still underweight risk
Bulls are reigning currently, and the Steno Research portfolio keeps riding the wave. Has the rally got legs or is it time to cash in while we’re ahead? – Our considerations here.
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4 Charts to watch post-FOMC meeting
After a vanilla consensus meeting yesterday, we have compiled some charts that we find relevant or containing data that we will closely monitor in the upcoming weeks leading up to July
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ECB Watch: 6 charts on how EUR QT impacts markets
Ahead of the ECB decision, we release our chart book on the connection between EUR liquidity and moves in EUR markets. The ECB is likely to ramp up QT from July onwards and TLTRO repayments add to the liquidity malaise.
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2x Trade Alert: We enter a consumer spread and Chinese RE
We enter a consumer spread trade and a trade in Chinese Real Estate. If the Fed pauses, we need to add more risk to our portfolio.
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5 Things We Watch – Inflation, Fed pause, labor market, Swedish RE and AI
As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through 5 selected themes in the macro which we follow closely and summarize how we interpret them – this week spanning from today’s FOMC meeting to Swedish real estate.
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Real Estate Watch: Carnage in the Swedish Housing Market
Quick dive into the Swedish Real Estate market where variable rates in mortgages have proven especially spicy for households.
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Fed Watch: 7 charts on how assets perform when the Fed pauses
With the upcoming Fed meeting later today, we have sat down and looked at how assets perform when the Fed pauses, which is likely going to happen sooner rather than later.
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Inflation Watch: Glass half full or glass half empty?
The inflation report leaves room for interpretation. The core momentum is still too hot, and we are likely only an energy rally from a renewed ugly inflation picture. On the other hand, details are very soft and “Powell-flation” SCREEAAAAAAMS pause..
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The Energy Cable #24 – Speculators vs AbS
We are now experiencing a full-blown battle between Saudi Arabia and oil specs! Will Saudi Arabia get the upper hand or do they suffer from diminishing returns?
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9 charts on the US CPI report: Enough downside to prompt a skip !
As per usual ahead of a CPI report, we deliver the best charts on the USD inflation outlook. With May inflation coming in low across the globe, we see clear downside risks to the inflation report consensus.
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Labor Watch – Hairdressers and cleaning ladies are holding the labor market above water
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
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Positioning Watch – Turning our attention to Institutions and Fund Flows
Bullish price action and the soft-landing narrative is still roaring in markets, and we thus wonder whether It’s just the AI bonanza that’s driving market sentiment, or if the big players have actually switched their views. We take a look at institutional positioning and fund flows in this week’s edition.
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Portfolio watch #3: Resilience, resilience… more resilience?
Another great week for the Steno Research portfolio! Read along as we dissect the performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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Out of the box #7 – A Fistful of Euros – The European Crossroads and how to trade it
We have not been shy about our euro skepticism lately (to say the least) but as we now trade it, I thought it only appropriate to add some broader context to it. The way I perceive and understand the Eurozone I owe much to the influence of Edward Hugh who is sadly not with us anymore. I had him in mind writing this piece
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US Debt Watch: Who’ll absorb the blow?
An agreement on lifting the statutory debt ceiling has been made, and the treasury general account now has to be replenished by issuing new debt. What does that imply for financial markets, and is the outlook as bleak as some pundits claim?
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TRADE ALERT: We bet on EZ weakness
We bet on a weaker EUR/USD. IF you have been following our research you are not going to be surprised that we are engaging in this trade now. So why now you may ask?
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