The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
When the dust settles on this deposit crisis, banks will have to buy more bonds as financial authorities are likely to tighten LCR rules and ask banks to re-calibrate modeled outflows from corporate deposits. Lower for longer in core rates, while Italy is at risk?
What’s going on with Italian banks? How does the Chinese reopening look? What are the ramifications of a US shutdown? Will consumers run out of excess savings? And are FX crosses ready for a recession? Find the answers in this week’s edition.
While everyone is looking at Europe for safety we are taking the other side of the trade. The unbalances of the Eurozone haven’t gone away and with inflation & dark clouds on the horizon, we question whether an indebted fragmented economy can hold fast as the economic winds turn unfavorable. Lagarde is running out of bullets and fiscal ammunition is in short supply
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
The China play has thus far not been profitable but I refuse to back down on my underlining analysis- Yet some reconsiderations are in order and it might be the start of a larger reevaluation. But for now the course of the ship is intact
The Bank of England no longer sees a recession as the base-case, while a truckload of bank economists seems to be boarding the boat to soft landing island. Have traders followed along in positioning? Let’s see.
The Turkey Election Watch Series will culminate on election day, May 14th and 15th – READ OUR LATEST PREDICTIONS BEFORE ELECTION NIGHT. Steno Research launches our very own Turkey Election Live Blog. We will provide you with live updates, key trends and analyses from the election while results tick in.
One of the big drivers behind inflation and the economic boom in 2021 is the excess liquidity that the US government created for households and consumers. But what exactly has excess savings meant for the economy, and what is the outlook? Find out here.
Tik-tok (do we even dare writing that now-a-days). The x-over date is approaching and in a continued bank failure scenario, the x-over date may be reached already during May. The USD funding market is about to get interesting. Here is why!
Overall food for doves in the inflation report as some of the wage intensive categories show CLEAR signs of decelerating. Used cars increase a whooping 4.45% on the month and without it this would have been a HUGE dovish surprise.
Wednesday is back, and so is the weekly post where we highlight what we are currently spending our time looking at. Don’t miss out on the crucial tendencies in global macro presented in this shorter piece!
Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.
There are reasons to believe that the April inflation report will not be as soft as we’d like, but our chart book of leading indicators continues to hint at a sharp disinflation over the next 3-5 months.
A couple of weeks ago, we provided you with a list of regional banks with the biggest exposure towards commercial real estate. Now, it’s time to see how those players have performed since, as well as providing you with further charts on the real estate outlook. Enjoy!
Now that the ECB and Fed meetings have concluded, we can assess how traders have positioned themselves after the curtains have closed
The ECB and the Fed keep referring to sound and resilient conditions in banking as they obviously need to. Beneath the surface, a cocktail of mediocre regulation, bizarre incentives and complacent authorities is likely to guide us into a continued bank crisis until rates come down. Here is why!
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
Why will the suffering not end among regional banks despite an abating deposit flight? How vulnerable are balance sheets? And why is USD liquidity impacted by the running FDIC intervention in regional banks? Get the answers here.
Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…
Despite all the recession talks and worsening economic conditions, consumers seem to be fine (for now), which might disturb our thesis of lower inflation and a recession in H2. In this piece, we’ll shed some light on the household balance sheet and deduce what it means for macro the next couple of months
Few markets have shown ambiguity like energy markets have, and the ghost of 2022 still haunts many investors deterring them pulling the trigger. Is a sequel brewing, or will the deterioration continue? We present to you two different takes on the matter.
We have updated our liquidity models and found a relatively firm shift from benign- to tighter liquidity conditions ahead in May and June. How will changing liquidity impact markets in USD, EUR, JPY and CNY? Let’s have a look at it.
The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.
With the failure of First Republic Bank and Ueda’s dovish remarks, we once again dig into how traders are positioned across asset classes. Find out if you have picked the right horses in this week’s edition.
With German CPI being released today we have taken a deeper look into the wage negotiations in Germany, which might give a hint to how inflation dynamics will evolve in the future. Follow along in this short piece!
The US budget deficit is a whooping 7.5% of GDP worse than what it should be given the healthy employment and growth numbers of the economy. Is the Inflation Reduction Act running wild or what’s going on?
The recent slide in oil prices is interesting given how many fundamentals supported the notion of higher prices. Is this a temporary setback for the oil bulls? And how will Nat Gas fare in this environment?
The banking crisis seems to be back, Asia is apparently the new black, and the hopes of an economic comeback in the West is vanishing. Things are certainly not as we thought a couple of months ago, but follow along as we look at the best hideouts in this week’s edition.
The term inflation has merged from academia to layman’s vocabulary. The question is whether it’s time to shelf the term or if it remains as relevant as ever. We look at forward-looking indicators and try to pass judgment – this time on Europe.
The first meeting with Ueda at the helm takes place this week. The Bank of Japan is under increasing pressure to act and the Finance Ministry (and Warren Buffet) seems to be preparing for higher interest rates.