Watch Series

Turkey is heading to the polls on May 14th and the stakes couldn’t be higher. In this piece, we draw up the main foreign policy differences between the top contestants Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu.

Though this last week has furnished fewer fires, global macro currents never truly rest. With banking stress and troubled commercial real estate idling, we eye a window for us to turn our attention elsewhere.

A new energy cable where we take oil under the loop given that the energy has been the best performing sector in the US month-to-date

Earnings season is kicking off today with big banks reporting today and Monday. We are taking the opportunity to look at big vs small cap on the back.

Happy Easter and welcome to the 15th edition of the most thorough energy newsletter in the World.
Our price models started turning bullish on oil just in time to catch parts of the positivity seen through the month of April and Energy stocks have started to climb the rankings on relative attractiveness of equity sectors rapidly these weeks.

With OPEC’s surprise cut of 1.15 mn. barrels, oil looks like a solid buy, meaning that the case from last week might turn out to be correct. But what about Natural Gas? Not quite the same story.

Welcome to a new Demographics Watch! We will take a deep dive into public debt and how it’s related to birth rates and ageing population. If you want to go even deeper into our numbers, we have set up a Demographics page on our Datahub, where you can play around with the numbers yourself. It’s for Premium users only – but you can try it out for free with a 14-day trial.   Demographics Watch – A Public Debt Timebomb   In our first Demographics Watch article, we introduced ‘The Problem Index’ – a measure of a country’s ability to deal with an ageing population. Weighing the pull and push forces of growing dependency (an increasing older population relying on its diminishing working age population) and migration (as one potential way to fill this gap), we outlined the countries most vulnerable to a continuation, or worsening of current demographic trends. Unsurprisingly, it didn’t make for comfortable reading anywhere, but the index suggested two major problem regions – Eastern and Southern Europe, and East Asia.    We also highlighted that the Problem Index would serve as the groundwork on which we’d build. Today, we want to expand upon the pure demographic trends explored by considering the second order economic impacts captured by the Problem Index – namely, an ageing population’s impact on a country’s public debt.    Before we delve into the forecasts and data itself, a brief 101. The theory itself is relatively straightforward: ageing populations – people living longer […]

European counterparts too have suffered from contagion from the turmoil unfolding in the US banking system, but have troubles been contained or will we see further spillovers take its toll? Europe is better equipped to deal with a liquidity crisis, but a credit crisis will hit Europe more than the US.