The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
It’s been another of those macro weeks that makes you 10 years older in a matter of days. We look at the timeliest indicators of the deposit flight crisis and assess how to deal with it.
What a couple weeks! Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well. Triggered by a casino in disguise, the troubles have for now been backstopped, but is further distress lurking beneath the surface?
Energy prices- and stocks have suffered due to the banking crisis as it flows through to the real economy. Was this the actual recession trigger? If so, it may be too early to tilt positive on Energy and underlyingly our models have rather turned more bearish than they already were over the past weeks.
Find out what to expect from Gas, electricity and oil markets below!
The FOMC will likely decide to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps and regret it soon thereafter on Wednesday. Everything but the banking sector stress screams higher interest rates, why the Fed will attempt to regain control of the narrative.
What a week. Let’s have a look at flow and positioning indicators. Some of them will surprise you
Are EU banks more solid and protected from bank runs and instability in the banking system? Have the EU set up safe-guards that will keep the European Banks safe? We take a closer look and are not overly convinced.
What happens when the curve steepens? It is bad good news for commodities, mixed news for equities and often temporarily good news for the USD except against JPY. Here is why..
The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the banking crisis. We know, we know … You are all focused on the banking drama in the US and its potential contagion to other markets. We wouldn’t want to let you down on a fresh Energy Cable, however we promise to be brief. Our latest model updates do not hint of a bull-market in energy around the corner. Rather the contrary. Let’s have a look at the risk/reward across oil, nat gas and metals in the context of the ongoing banking crisis. Steno Research: China bought as much energy as they usually do in 2022. Forget about the “reopening story” in Energy Loyal readers will know that we have remained very skeptical about the bullish outlook for energy on the back of the Chinese reopening. Lo and behold, we have some more data to back up that point. The ‘Europe is doomed once China starts to bid for LNG’ story has been the go to story by doomsday sayers and other charlatans but we just don’t see it. Firstly let’s just compare the Chinese demand for LNG imports with Japan. 2023 has seen Japanese demand converging towards Chinese. Moving on to the average LNG import by China. In a lockdown year China […]
We focus on three categories in today’s inflation print from the US. Shelter, Medical Services and Transportation Services. Overall, we find risks to be on the downside for inflation but mostly in March/April.
Let’s have a look at our flow -and positioning indicators after a week of market turbulence. How big were the SVB-fueled flows on Thursday and Friday? We look across assets in this analysis.
Most people tend to agree that the amount of money in an economy affects economic conditions. More money makes consumers buy more goods and services, and the excess demand leads to increasing prices.. but what happens when we destroy USDs as we currently do? More SVB cases show up!
In the first edition of our Demographics Watch series, we took inventory of the global problem of aging populations. The issue is a familiar one in the West, but ‘The Asian Tigers’ too are waking up to a new reality of shrinking working populations. Who is next in line to take over from China as the world’s labour hub?
Silicon Valley Bank is under water on the exchange and a bank-run is currently unfolding it seems. Should we be worried? A few notes from a night of full of telcos.
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
The abiding tale of a Chinese reopening has been about as labile as pundits’ conviction of a soft landing. In fact the two may very well be tightly correlated. Now, it seems data has finally arrived to firmly lay to rest the debate whether a reopening would show. What better time then to unwrap and examine the implications?
Risk reward may be about to turn for parts of the European energy space after a land-slide in prices in recent quarters. Will margins increase this spring again? Let’s have a look at the details, while we wait for more data in oil space.
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.
Some have labeled 2022 a “white collar recession” as the job market has remained stable throughout. Are there early signs of weakening in US labor markets? And what would be the consequences? We look at 7 charts here.
Some early indicators of inflation have started to show worrisome signals 4-6 months down the road, which may lead to a resurfacing of inflation trends before the first battle is even won. Is the double-top inflation narrative warranted? Let’s have a look at pros and cons.
The consumer is rebounding fast due to several inflation-linked technicalities in January, while China is now obviously open for business. This should be fuel for equities despite all the bear-porn out there, but also worrying from an inflation perspective.
A gap has opened between European wages and prices over the past 12 months. This naturally leads to heightened expectation for collective bargaining agreements across the continent. We point you to the most important battlegrounds for 2023
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
Service inflation is feeding through to Europe in size now, which makes the case for further ECB tightening compelling. Here are 7 charts on EUR inflation ahead of the Euro-zone print on Thursday and what it means for markets
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…
After an outright terrible end to 2022 for consumer spending, 2023 has started off on a better note. Is the consumer spending back? And what are the driving forces behind the consumption comeback in case?
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
China actively uses its reserves to fight price trends and currently BOTH the US and China release reserves simultaneously. This is more than enough to counter Russian production cuts. Here is why!
Which countries have the absolute worst demographics? How can we use demographic indicators to forecast financial and political trouble? Learn more in our brand new Demographics Watch series!
What is the USD outlook given current liquidity gauges and economic conditions around the globe, you ask? Well that is why we have the Dollar O’Meter where we’ll look at the USD through different lenses.