The USD wreckingball has overshadowed the bullish technicalities in the long NOK bet, and we were stopped out today.
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Watch Series
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
Portfolio Watch: The USD wrecking ball is back
King USD is back and portfolio rebalancing flows will likely emphasize the move into next week. We are at crossroads in FX markets as energy commodities are starting to impact price action.
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UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming
The early consensus for UK inflation next week looks relatively hot given typically benign patterns in March, which are likely underpinned by the Early easter timing. We see a downside surprise of roughly 10-12 bps to consensus.
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G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!
High for longer vibes are once again impacting the EUR- and USD rates forward pricing. Is the market wrong to assume that equilibrium rates have to be lower than current spot levels? None of us knows, yet the market is hellbent on assuming it knows!
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Trade Alert: Getting out of duration in AUD & EUR
Exiting some suration trades and moving on in the reflation trades
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US CPI Review: Inflation is accelerating, no return to 2% in sight
US core inflation printed only a few bps away from our forecasts in another report showing the firm price pressures in the US economy. Inflation is accelerating right when Powell and his ilk want to start cutting rates.
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Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in
As the cyclical survey-based comeback seems to be priced in fully by markets, new fan-favorites have emerged: inflation hedges.
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Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
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Portfolio Watch: The real world is reflating again
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
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Out of the Box: 6 reasons the Fed will be hiking rates in 2024
Another ‘Out of the Box’ with some food for thought on Fed’s rate path and the most un-appreciated risk scenario, namely more hikes.
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Trade Alert: Playing the last reflation saloon and NOK technicalities
The final reflation melt-up may be right in front of us during Q2. Position accordingly.
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Scandi Watch: More NOK liquidity coming, but with positive FX spot effects?
The money market working group in Norway has presented its early results. Here are the main take-aways for the NOK and NIBOR.
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Macro Regime Indicator: From Stealth QE to Stealth QT
The macro regime model has gone from ALL-IN on risk to a much more moderate scenario as the liquidity tide is turning. Find the allocation thoughts here.
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Positioning Watch – Steepener bets back on?
Manufacturing sensitive assets have generally been outperforming broad-market benchmarks over the past weeks, despite some signs that the manufacturing boom could be short-lived. Some markets have started to agree, lowering exposure in both commodities and cyclical FX.
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Trade Alert: Profiting in Energy
With the rebound in manufacturing coming through, our energy bet has enjoyed the mix of greater demand and geopolitical tensions.
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Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China
Solid numbers out of China over Easter solidifies the commodity case including in Energy. If China is actually moving, commodities remain too cheap.
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Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing
The inflation divergence theme is growing in importance, while the Rest of the World is catching up (or down) to the US in terms of financial conditions. Here is how we position for it..
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Trade alert: Stopped out of SEK and Nat Gas
Procyclical tilt has taken a hit over the past days
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Explainer: the 3 faces of Chinese consumer pessimism
The Li Keqiang Index witnessed its most robust monthly surge since 2005 but consumer confidence is rotten?
Understand the paradoxes of the Chinese consumer in this explainer.
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Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?
We called out the cyclical rotation a couple of weeks ago, and while our trades have performed according to plan, we are starting to see signs of the trade getting too crowded to our taste.
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Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
The full Ifo report was released yesterday, and here is the summary with the most important charts from our models. Overall, there is not a lot of fuel to the reflation story in Germany.
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Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China
This week we hone in on the consequences of the Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian refiners and how to play it along with some thoughts on our profit taking in metal space as something BIG is cooking in China!
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EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk
We see relatively soft numbers out of Germany and France, while Spanish numbers will look hot due to electricity VAT adjustments. June cut is ON..
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Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however
China has been in the limelight recently, and the attention from clients match the evident rotation in managed positioning. While tremendously yielding, we’ve decided to de-risk in metals but keep overall cyclical exposure.
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Trade Alert: Booking profits in commodities
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
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Norway Watch: Cheat sheet to assessing Norges Banks rate path
The mechanical adjustments are likely going to lead to a hawkish revision of the Norges Bank rate path tomorrow unless the subjective layer is used to send another signal. Risks tilted towards a hawkish take-away.
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Trade Alert: Booking profits in commodities
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
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Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities
Market positioning is finally aligning with the trends highlighted in the past weeks, and commodity positioning is now almost outright bullish for cyclical metals, while cyclical equities are moving. Read how markets are positioned here.
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UK CPI Watch: Softer than priced in..
We see UK CPI coming in soft relative to expectations and generally find the BoE to be priced too hawkishly compared to peers. Read along why here..
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Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!
Commodities have broken out of recent price ranges left, right and center over the past 1-2 weeks and we have timed the entries well. Read along to find our top-picks in Commodity space right now.
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