The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
We sum up a yuge week ahead in this brief and chart-heavy update on the big central banks. Where’s the value to be found in rates space this week?
The commodity cycle is healing, but overall trends are more lukewarm. Interesting whether this is the market sniffing out something related to the manufacturing cycle in China? Either way, we have been positioned appropriately.
2024 has been better than feared for the USD, with hotter inflation data and better economic conditions paving the way for a stronger dollar, but what happens if the Fed cuts into sticky (or even rising) inflation?
With a break-out from ranges in Copper, Silver and Oil, we look for clues as to whether the Chinese buying is behind the sudden emerging optimism in the commodity space.
How Germanys constitutional debt brake could hinder the green transition of Europe and leave Germany at the bottom of the leaderboard in the race towards fiscal deficits.
Long term inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates!
Hot on the heels of today’s awaited US CPI report, we offer our rundown of the most noteworthy figures. Safe to say the Fed wasn’t helped along in achieving their target.
Hints of a BoJ hike in as early as March sent Nikkei 225 down, while China-proxies like Hang Seng and South Korea were bid. Will a move from BoJ wreak havoc with market positioning?
The Chinese moves toward larger fiscal deficits may be helpful for the energy- and industrial metal cases, but we still lack confirmation from the actual manufacturing cycle globally. Could the commodity complex be the macro case of 2024?
Was the sudden reacceleration in the owners equivalent of rent a one-off? This is the KEY question ahead of a report that brings soft food prices, soft car prices, soft goods prices and hot energy prices.
Signs of a cyclical re-acceleration
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
Shipping stocks have not rallied lately despite the optimism in risk markets. Is a peace deal in Gaza a good sign for shipping companies? And how does it impact commodity markets? The latest Shanghai container output data looks bullish! Find the answers here.
We see an improving Manufacturing sentiment as a decent bet for 2024 and this trade typically loves such an environment.
Just as we identified in last month’s regime – and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.
Equities continue to thrive given upbeat liquidity and growth conditions, while Fixed Income and commodities have provided more of a lackluster return, but are the unpopular bets returning in positioning data?
The Aussie bet has not really played out the way we wanted, and we were stopped out earlier today.
Focus on OPEC’s continued production cuts into a story of bouncing growth which sets up a tasty story for crude and maybe also natural gas! Read why here!
Despite inflation not dropping to the extent our models had suggested, the ECB has still been dovishly surprised relative to its base case. Will the ECB prepare for cuts at the meeting this week?
The cyclical rotation is slowly but surely rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
Disinflation is simply not happening as fast as anticipated by our models, but base effects remain very benign in coming months. The stickiness in services is eye-catching, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for the ECB.
How well is Russia’s economy doing two years into the war? And how will the upcoming election play out? Read our explainer
Money growth has improved lately in the US, while there are trillions parked on the time deposit / MMF side-lines. If the Fed cuts rates into the current rally, we may see another 2021/2022 melt-up.
Commodities positioning have remained fairly silent over the past few weeks, but we are seeing early signs of appetite for cyclical commodities now. Early innings of a cyclical rebound or just noise?
Join us for the latest Macro Outlook and Presentation of Steno research’s new improved data model offering.
Nat Gas levels are far below sector break-evens, making it a tug of war between short-sellers (mainly CTAs) and producers. Nat Gas looks like a bargain, but let’s see whether the chicken comes home to roost.
The gap between trends in forward looking inflation indicators in Germany and the US is striking and increasing. This may be the most important macro trend right now..
The ECB is scared of acting ahead of the Fed, why a substantial dovish surprise is needed in February HICP to bring about a decent probability of spring action from the ECB. Find our updated now-casts here.
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
We add to our cyclical rotation, while we take profit in our very profitable tech bets.