The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
Powell keeps referring to a labor market getting into better balance, but is the labour market really moving into a better balance? It is highly doubtful after watching these two charts.
If a rebound in manufacturing is truly happening, current dynamics in FX option markets provide cheap leverage and good opportunities to capitalize on our trading ideas. In the equity space, broad momentum is slowly creeping back in ETF fund flows, and the early reacceleration in prices haven’t affected sentiment it seems.
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
Markets have started to factor in good news as bullish, which all of a sudden makes market pricing (on equities mostly) indicative of economic expectations once again. Are there still opportunities in the cyclical momentum?
Christina Lagarde says wage data will be “critically important” in deciding when to loosen monetary policy in the EU. So naturally, Steno Research takes inventory of ongoing labour negotiations and rising pay in the EU.
Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done, but we see signs of exhaustion in the long energy bet.
More and more signs point to a plateau in inflation in the US, which makes a return to 2% tough in this cycle. The odds are better in the Eurozone, while the UK remains a basket case.
Another smoking hot inflation report in the “sticky” categories. Shelter is re-accelerating, while wage-heavy categories continue to surprise on the upside. Goods deflation remains ongoing.
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
From 200 bps worth of cuts priced in for June across the big 3 CBs in the start of January to 100 bps now. Does it move the needle or is everybody still on the risk-wagon?
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
Markets betting on one of the softest MoM services CPI prints in UK inflation history in January. Feasible? Yes, but…
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
With revisions out of the way, we can look forward to the US CPI report on Tuesday. Everything points towards a softening and a May cut should be back in focus!
Freight rates have started to level off, but remember that this is the “soft season” for shipping volumes. From March and onwards, the shipping volumes will accelerate sharply.
A lot has been said about the Non Farm Payroll report last week yet we believe certain aspects have still largely flown under the radar. Read which below
The revised weights -and seasonal patterns will be revealed by the BLS on Friday, while we will get the updated weights from Europe alongside an understanding of the tax impact on HICP inflation.
With beyond robust US economic growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this persuasive expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies?
Is inflation going to re-accelerate? The bottom is in for the SLOOS survey, which tends to be a strong cyclical indicator in the US economy.
Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
We have taken on a new FX position and have pinned another to the watchlist. See details below
Crude oil above USD 80 lasted all but a week and we are now trading in the January range again. Here is our take along with some oil-related news from the week. The structural oil bet is still improving beneath the hood.
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
The weekly freight rate print just landed with the first negative weekly change in almost two months. Let’s delve into the data.
The first rate cut is a timing question from both the Fed, the ECB and the BoE now. How do we trade the first cut and why are seasonality issues important to bear in mind? Read along here.
Yellen holds the keys to an early end to QT. At the surface, she holds all the incentives to get the QT tapering process started sooner rather than later. Will it be reflected in the QRA details tomorrow?
Option premiums allow one to derive risk-neutral probabilities for the underlying security at expiry. How are these probabilities looking for USD, EUR- and GBP inflation?
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?