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EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Jan 24, 2024 |

As we conclude a busy midweek with loads of matter to digest in a global macro we will this week attempt to make an odd synthesis between the recent events in China its importance for price action and how we look at it going forward and Trump’s success in New Hampshire and how we are currently framing the 2016 campaign in the context of the EM space

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China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Jan 23, 2024 |

The drivers of the recent sell-off in Chinese equities mirror the weakness of the Real Estate sector and the two are inherently interlinked. The question is whether the leadership will respond to the sell-off in the same way they did during the Real Estate crisis last year. In such case, fundamentals will remain unadressed. Read our takeaway below

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EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling

Dec 13, 2023 |

After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality

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EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

EM by EM #29: Biden’s party, EM’s hangover & Scholz’s nightmare

Nov 10, 2023 |

The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below

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Something for your Espresso: No hike if you cut!

Something for your Espresso: Month-end or trend?

Sep 1, 2023 |

The EURUSD reversal on the back of hot inflation in Europe was a surprising move, but one we fancy. The Chinese stabilization is walking a tightrope despite efforts from the authorities to prop up CNY asset values.

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China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

China Watch: The big losers from an imports pull-back

Aug 24, 2023 |

‘When China sneezes the West catches a cold’. We’ve said that before, but who is really most reliant on a well-functioning Chinese economy? Europe is now clearly the next shoe to drop. Could long cyclical Asia vs short Cyclical Europe be a strong RV trade?

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