The Philly Fed NBOS survey revealed a weakening service sector for the first time in this cycle. Is this the final shoe to drop? The UK meanwhile remains the laggard on inflation.
The market is now clearly starting to price in a soft inflation number from the US today. The inflation report better deliver or else the market is in for a rude awakening.
The market is now clearly starting to price in a soft inflation number from the US today. The inflation report better deliver or else the market is in for a rude awakening.
The hiring cycle has thrived due to a substantial depletion of the inflation-adjusted price of labour in 2021-2022, which may lead to a firing spree once inflation starts to come down and real wages start to go up. Will the labor market finally cave in due to falling inflation?
The term inflation has merged from academia to layman’s vocabulary. The question is whether it’s time to shelf the term or if it remains as relevant as ever. We look at forward-looking indicators and try to pass judgment – this time on Europe.
After a shocking CPI report from the UK, one may ponder whether British exceptionalism carries the day or whether we have more price pain in store for the continent. We hold our ground and remain in the “CPI is deaccelerating fast” camp
This week’s CPI report aligned seamlessly with our expectations, affirming the anticipated cycle-pattern. Naturally, this begs the question – what lies ahead, and what could break our view? Some additional thoughts for the weekend.
Most people tend to agree that the amount of money in an economy affects economic conditions. More money makes consumers buy more goods and services, and the excess demand leads to increasing prices.. but what happens when we destroy USDs as we currently do? More SVB cases show up!
China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.
A gap has opened between European wages and prices over the past 12 months. This naturally leads to heightened expectation for collective bargaining agreements across the continent. We point you to the most important battlegrounds for 2023
The disinflationary vibes are not tattooed all over this inflation report despite a cooling yearly inflation pace for the seventh consecutive month. BUT.. do note that Powells target variable keeps cooling!
Will the new BoJ governor rock the boat? Quotes from a source close to Amamiya would suggest as much, while we look forward to the US CPI report today.
The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise, especially after its tear in 2022, which was like a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc in and around the financial system. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’ Meter to track the USD versus peers.
Inflation printed right on consensus despite another jump in shelter costs. Several goods categories cooled quicker than anticipated by many. This is net/net a dovish report after all. USD remains a sell.
It is now that time of month again. As economists anxiously await the coming CPI-print, we will in this ‘preview’ turn to our charts in an effort to align expectations according to select indicators.
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!