We are once again long the mother of all window maker trades, but there are interesting moves to trade in the energy space again, as the supply side of Nat Gas (and Oil) is back in the lime-light.
Energy Cable: The recipe for another summer of exploding energy prices (in Europe)
We present the ingredients needed for another potential acceleration of electricity prices in Europe over the Summer and looking at data it seems like chances are becoming greater
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Something for your Espresso: Pfandbrief, Achtung Achtung!
The spill-overs within German regional banks from the CRE crisis are increasing. Will this turn into a topic for the ECB or for German politicians?
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Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!
The issues in the Red Sea are spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy. The impact from the Red Sea will not be seen short-term, but it may prove to be a sneaky and relatively lasting positive impact on inflation.
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Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
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Out of the Box #6: The Europeanization of the US banking system is on its way!
A WSJ article suggested that US banks will be required to hold up to 20% more capital should the Basel rules be fully implemented by 2025. The Fed is likely to present a new direction for regulation by the end of this month according to sources. How severe is this? Here are the numbers..
5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil
This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.
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Something for your Espresso: The hiking cycle is over
The hiking cycle seems over, even if inflation is running too hot. Lower rates are likely needed to resteepen the curve and tempt money back into deposits from bills and money market funds. The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place.
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Something for your Espresso: Bear Stearns 2.0?
Silicon Valley Bank is under water on the exchange and a bank-run is currently unfolding it seems. Should we be worried? A few notes from a night of full of telcos.