What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.
A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
Several markets are already trading as if liquidity has arrived in size, but we have yet to truly see it. The good news is that the ON RRP is close to depletion, which may lead to an early end to QT.
China just pulled a market stunt right before a flood of liquidity hits, and the Fed is cooking up some magic liquidity tricks to keep things lively. Buckle up for Q4.
The full-blown underpinning of crypto by Donald Trump increases the probability of pro-cyclical fiscal- and monetary policy. Ensuring a floor under Crypto developments is of utmost relevance ahead of the election for Biden.
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
The cyclical rotation is slowly but surely rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
Macro is on the move and we have diverging trends in inflation. Find our brief overview of the five themes that move markets the most this week in global macro.
Things are starting to look a little troublesome for the US economy in the mid-term as re-accelerating inflation and a weakening labor market is no easy cocktail for the Fed. Read more here together with some notes on freight rates, Japan and the new BTC ETF.
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?