Inflation evidence based on price trends in January remains soft in Europe, but the danger from freight rates looms large. Will the ECB choose the half glass full or empty approach on Thursday?

Inflation evidence based on price trends in January remains soft in Europe, but the danger from freight rates looms large. Will the ECB choose the half glass full or empty approach on Thursday?
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!