CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view
Plenty of bets in LatAm carry trades unwound this week on the back of BoJ YCC tweak. But perhaps the LatAmsphere has a USD winner short term?
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
BoJ’s decision is of course the big talking point for markets this week. Our book keeps up despite some impact from Ueda’s decision- but what will it mean and how will we trade it in the coming weeks? Read our view below
This week our primary focus is the current business cycle, where we try to figure out which stage we are in, and what outlook different asset classes are pricing in. Today’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’ is no exception.
USD weakness paired with an uptrend in cyclical currencies sounds like the perfect rebound cocktail, but can FX markets rightfully reveal turning points in the economic cycle? Let’s have a look at the current pricing and the historical evidence.
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
Volatility has been detrimental to many books this week which too is reflected in some of our positions and it appears that diversification is gaining increased significance given the resurgence of volatility. Traders who are not paying attention here will pay for it involuntarily
Economic data keeps surprising us positively, and markets are starting to believe that a soft landing is the base case. That’s at least what positioning data is telling us.
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
2021 will be remembered as a great policy error year at the FED and the ECB. But other central banks saw the inflation coming. Will they be in front of the curve again in 2023?
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
Norges Bank finally made a decent attempt at underpinning the NOK, but the issue is that rates don’t really matter for the NOK. They matter a bit more for the SEK, which makes a SEK long tempting ahead of next week. Is the Scandi bloodbath over?
With the debt ceiling deal done and yesterday’s stunning NFP numbers, the soft landing narrative seems to be back, and optimism is gaining territory in the global macro scene. See what this means for positioning across asset classes, and whether you’ve placed your eggs in the right basket.
As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.
Based on price action, equity optimism is back, but positioning data tells us another story. We unfold the mystery, as well as providing you with positioning data across asset classes. Find out if you share the view of traders in this week’s edition.
What’s going on with Italian banks? How does the Chinese reopening look? What are the ramifications of a US shutdown? Will consumers run out of excess savings? And are FX crosses ready for a recession? Find the answers in this week’s edition.
Now that the ECB and Fed meetings have concluded, we can assess how traders have positioned themselves after the curtains have closed
With the failure of First Republic Bank and Ueda’s dovish remarks, we once again dig into how traders are positioned across asset classes. Find out if you have picked the right horses in this week’s edition.
It seems like traders are hesitant to make major allocation adjustments in the current environment, leaving us with a ‘silence before the storm’ impression. Find out if you have your eggs in the correct baskets in this week’s edition.
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!