Tensions are rising between the US and Iran as the Red Sea troubles are widening. Meanwhile, Evergrande is liquidated in China but with limited spill-overs.
Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
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Something for your Espresso: PPIs speak loudly
The Canadian PPI continued its landslide yesterday and it makes you question whether BoC was too quick re-accelerating the hiking cycle. Meanwhile, markets keep coping with USD issuance.
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Something for your Espresso: Explicit pause or just a pause?
Will the FOMC minutes reveal whether a pause is on the table in June? Are more members worried about communicating that it is an explicit pause?
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Something for your Espresso: No food for 50bp in meeting minutes
A few participants favoured a 50 bp hike at the last meeting, but the overwhelming majority backs a strategy where a slowing pace allows the Fed to gauge the extent of hikes needed. Forget about 50bps in March.
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Real Estate Watch – Which markets will be worst off in 2023?
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
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Inflation Watch – Further downside to US CPI consensus
It is now that time of month again. As economists anxiously await the coming CPI-print, we will in this ‘preview’ turn to our charts in an effort to align expectations according to select indicators.
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Real Estate Watch #1 – The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate
The biggest interest rate shock in several decades ought to challenge the Real Estate outlook. Since housing famously is the business cycle, what is the 2023 outlook for housing?
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Steno Signals #20 – NO soft landing unless central banks admit to disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
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Steno Signals #15 – The one on inflation nuances and portfolio construction
It is time to be humble about inflation. It is tricky to time the peak, why a basket with embedded windshields, should inflation re-accelerate, may be the best choice.
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