This week our primary focus is the current business cycle, where we try to figure out which stage we are in, and what outlook different asset classes are pricing in. Today’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’ is no exception.
With the recent move in swap rates and the JPY, we have once again looked into Japan to find out when BoJ will do something about their policy and if the Yen is a viable option for your portfolio. JPY looks more like a sell than like a buy here.
With the US inflation report coming in later today, we have a look at the 5 things that we are keeping an eye out for in markets.
The ECB members agree on a hike in July, but September is still in doubt after what may have been the most hilarious update to staff projections in recent years. Rear-view mirror policy-making continues.
The ISM Services report had “pause” tattooed all over, while the RBA hiked this morning in a surprise move. Is the RBA a harbinger for the BoJ? We also took notice of the WSJ story in increasing capital requirements for banks.
The U.S. and Japanese equity markets present a contrast in earnings expectations, driven by differing economic conditions and monetary policies. Will the optimism for U.S. earnings growth last, and has the immense influx of capital to Japanese markets overbid fair value?
Our portfolio is live, and we have added USDCNH, long Japanese equities, long 2yr USTs, long EM Local Govies and the FOMO AI trade. Details are attached here.
The G10 central banks coordinately called the peak in global inflation after the Davos gathering earlier this year and now BoJs Ueda has hinted that central banks agreed at the G7 meeting that they should patiently wait and see for the effects on already implemented. The doves are cooing!
We have been bullish on equities through the year but now see increasing signs warranting a defensive shift in positioning. Liquidity is drying up both in Europe and the US, and BoJ has effectively made further liquidity adding interventions unnecessary. China may be the only place on earth with positive liquidity trends.
The banking crisis seems to be back, Asia is apparently the new black, and the hopes of an economic comeback in the West is vanishing. Things are certainly not as we thought a couple of months ago, but follow along as we look at the best hideouts in this week’s edition.
The first meeting with Ueda at the helm takes place this week. The Bank of Japan is under increasing pressure to act and the Finance Ministry (and Warren Buffet) seems to be preparing for higher interest rates.
With the banking turmoil leaving the headlines (for now), we turn our attention towards the main themes in the broader macro landscape. What’s going on with inflation? What will the Fed do? Is oil turning bullish? And what about Japan? As always we keep you updated on the 5 biggest themes of the week. Enjoy!
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
Is Kazuo Ueda another trial balloon from the Japanese government or is this a confirmation that politicians seek a break-up with the ultra-loose policy of Kuroda?
Tokyo inflation solidifies our theory that Asian inflation (Japan, China, Taiwan and parts of Oceania) will continue to rally during Q1-Q2, while the actual production is BACK in the West.
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
Morning folks Smoking hot CPI report out of Australia. Good news for our AUD longs and a cementation of a too dovish pricing of RBA currently peaking at 3.75% in Q3. If the RBA were to copy/paste the playbook of the Fed or the ECB and aim for positive real rates… Oh boy a repricing that would prompt. We wouldn’t rule out such a repricing since we find that the APAC inflation cycle lags Europe and the US. Europe’s energy woes increased price pressures on Natural Gas in the APAC region with a time-lag, and this is one of the reasons why this region is now under inflation scrutiny. This is of relevance for Bank of Japan as well. Australian CPI empirically leads Japanese CPI by 3 months, which leads us to the conclusion that Japanese inflation is headed for 5-5.5% in the next 3-4 months. Quite a backdrop for a new Governor in BoJ and a HISTORICAL chance to at least partly scrap the YCC. Bring on speculation about a change of policy via the JPY release valve again. Chart 1. Australian CPI leads Japanese CPI We saw a decent bounce in both US and European S&P PMIs, but no one really cares about them, since the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) out earlier this week points to ISM Services clearly below 50… Yesterday’s market reaction was also telling with no positive reaction to the rebound in PMIs, since the crowd was CLEARLY leaning that way ahead of the PMIs. […]
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?