Just as most tabloid models forecasted a near-0% chance of a recession within the next year, markets reacted in stark contrast. Can the recent broad based selloff and the following and current rally be explained by developments in liquidity, inflation, or growth?
We have entered a macro regime where PMIs and headline inflation outpace liquidity in importance. The pick-up in Manufacturing PMIs paired with the potential higher headline inflation provides some interesting guidance for portfolio managers.
With the banking turmoil fading a bit, we thought we’d turn some of our attention elsewhere. It’s not like there is a lack of things to cover in global macro. Once again, we present our timeliest findings and assess how to interpret them.