Into year-end we have noted a number of key shifts in what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view. We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and...
Here we highlight 3 key observations from our Central Bank Sentiment tracker, with the ECB, Fed and BoJ all exhibiting interesting shifts in their language at an important policy juncture.
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
The spread between the income and production side of the economy keeps widening, but are there reasons to worry, or is it once again just a statistical question?
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
Weak hiring including negative revisions, Services much weaker relative to trend, but Manufacturing is rebounding. Everything we planned for!
Our indicators suggest that ISM Manufacturing may suddenly accelerate faster than thought possible… A cyclical upswing on the cards in the US? Watch out tomorrow.
Big BRICS meeting in South Africa this week … So inviting Saudi Arabia et al. into the club is one big positive EV right? Well not necessarily
S&P Global US Manufacturing out later today and we get to test our thesis on relative signs of strength in the PMI numbers.
Ueda and Kishida met earlier today, allegedly to discuss currency developments among other things. Despite efforts to move away from the ultra-easy monetary policy, the BoJ remains as active as EVER..
A rebound in CNY, a much weaker JPY and higher USD rates. Sounds like the PBoC doom-loop to us! Here is how it works
USDCNH above or below 7.20 changes the global macro regime and leads to a rotation in case it continues. Are you prepared accordingly?
Will the PBoC defend the 7.30 handle at all costs? What does it mean for risk appetite? And how will Commodity markets be impacted? 5 nuggets on the importance of USDCNY right here!