What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.
The trend shift in fixed income is remarkable and sharply contrarian to the post-Trump consensus. We expect more of the same ahead, coupled with a firm decision by the Fed to support liquidity in December. Meanwhile, gold may see a catalyst.
A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to try and avoid tariffs? And what is happening in German politics?
While the world is busy guessing who will win this election, we’re here scratching our heads over what the story for oil will be in the coming months. Will the Saudis flood the markets after the election?
What the U.S lacks in Eurovision, they make up for during the Democratic National Convention. But in the midst of the media-mayhem, were we robbed of economic policy?
The Trump trade is currently gaining traction, but for how long? There is still a long way to November and Biden remains in power for now. Retail Sales numbers from the US will be interesting today.
All talk about Biden will likely fall silent after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Will a “Messianic” Trump impact the markets in the weeks ahead? Meanwhile, the hot PPI report on Friday served as a friendly reminder to still care about inflation.
With Biden catching up in polls, what effect could the “Hush Money” trial have on Trump’s campaign?
With Trump looking as a sure-fire bet to take the Republican nomination, how is the voter demographics poised for the eventual Biden-Trump rematch?
Iowa only matters for DeSantis, New Hampshire is crucial for Haley, and South Carolina is important for everyone.
With Donald Trump performing relatively well in recent polls – is he actually the favorite going into 2024? We take a look at some key demographics.