Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.
US CPI printed at 7.1% – smack dab at our forecast – but it is not necessarily a signal to buy risk assets. Margins increased when inflation was hot. The opposite will happen now.
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
The current inflation is mainly a result of lagged consequences of the pandemic trends, but as these trends are about to reverse, we may experience the disinflationary part of the pandemic soon.