Read the main takeaways from today’s CPI report here, which came in slightly above expectations. The details of the report are hawkish, but as per usual inflation data is up for interpretation. We stick to long USD and paid front-end USD rates here.
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.
The dovish arguments keep piling up in the Eurozone, yet the Federal Reserve seems much more open to discuss potential changes to monetary policy in 2024. The ECB fears moving ahead of the crowd, even if they have a strong case.
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
The soft inflation report from the US led to a substantial sell-off in the USD alongside weaker real rates, but is the tide turning for the USD? Our models are not convinced yet.
The USD continues to weaken from the morning after a Chinese liquidity injection. Cyclical tailwinds continue despite very dire forward-looking indicators on Western consumption into 2024.
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
China is still in a state of crisis but perhaps recent dove-vibe in the US could sustain the run of some of the 2023 FX winners? Read our take below
The immediate shutdown threat has been averted, although the issue of war funding remains unresolved for President Biden. The question remains: is the political gridlock alleviated? Read our brief take below
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
The US fiscal trajectory is unsustainable and will require resolution, but does it inevitably entail excessively high-interest rates for “longer”? We have our doubts.
Last week’s rally was truly remarkable, especially considering the months of hardship that most assets endured prior. Could this be the long-awaited revenge of the longs, with short covering poised to dominate the price action in the days ahead? Dive into our analysis below to find out.
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
These days, everything seems to be in motion, but not all at the same pace of change. Dive into our inaugural Monday edition of Positioning Watch below to discern the disparities
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
Massa takes the first round but war is not over. We provide our view on the state of affairs in Argentina from a risk-taking perspective
A volatile week with plenty on the plate for investors. Biden’s push for war funding while Capitol Hill remains in gridlock. How are the bets stacking up? Dive into our weekly positioning watch below to find out
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
It is increasingly impossible to dissect what is going on in financial markets from what is taking place on the Geopolitical scene. Read below for our full take on the latest events
Treasuries have tumbled as 10- and 30-year yields touched their highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps steaming ahead. Is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds or will supply surmount demand, and can the USD extend its streak of strength?
In the wake of this tragic situation that is still unfolding, investors are grappling with the need to understand and navigate the turmoil. See our main Positioning takeaways here
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
The market opening hints of a stronger USD, higher energy prices, and slightly rising long bond yields. Is the opening price data backed up by empirical evidence? Let’s have a look.