As we review the events of this eventful week, it unfortunately appears to conclude with a tragic development, as we find ourselves reporting on the potential beginning of yet another conflict.
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
Oil prices have collapsed in recent days undermining one side of the USD/Oil wreckingball. Good news for EM’s generally? We offer our takeaway below and how we prefer to play it
After a series of eventful days on Capitol Hill, we present our key takeaways below. We remain committed to covering and sharing our perspective as the situation continues to evolve.
Lots of talk around a too-strong USD, especially in Asian markets. The issue is that the move in the USD is driven by BOTH monetary policy and relative energy balances. It is hard to make a Plaza Accord without a Riyadh accord.
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
The USD wrecking ball haunts again and several Asian Central Banks now actively intervene. The issue is that the USD is not the trigger of this move. Energy is.
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
Ultimately markets got the memo from the Fed. The rate hikes are not necessarily over, but they will not promise anything at this stage. USD bullish (again).
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
The Jackson Hole conference is a very binary event with the theme of the conference being “Structural Shifts In The Economy”. Will the Fed take the opportunity to talk about a higher inflation target or will they try to kill all hopes of lower interest rates in to 2024? It is either or!
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view
Plenty of bets in LatAm carry trades unwound this week on the back of BoJ YCC tweak. But perhaps the LatAmsphere has a USD winner short term?
The tightening cycle continues for both the Fed, ECB and now also BoJ, and that means it’s time to revisit global money trends to see what might happen next.
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
We are back for another big Central Bank week. 7 charts we think are worth paying attention to in the EM space as DM central bankers approach their final hike
We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?
The USD has weakened materially over the past weeks, which could be an early harbinger of an improving growth cycle. If cyclical growth is indeed rebounding, right about everyone will be wrongfooted. Here is how we position for it..