The gap between trends in forward looking inflation indicators in Germany and the US is striking and increasing. This may be the most important macro trend right now..
Something for your Espresso: The Chinese cutting cycle is back on fire
The Chinese authorities have stepped up their cutting game again, which may offer some short-term consolidation if continued. The spillovers to CNY, JPY and goods prices will be clear as well.
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Labour Watch: Can ECB cut rates with these pay rises?
Christina Lagarde says wage data will be “critically important” in deciding when to loosen monetary policy in the EU. So naturally, Steno Research takes inventory of ongoing labour negotiations and rising pay in the EU.
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Labour Watch: Why you should pay attention to the Border
A lot has been said about the Non Farm Payroll report last week yet we believe certain aspects have still largely flown under the radar. Read which below
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Out of the box #11 – Sticky is the new transitory
We observe an increasing amount of weird microcosm deflation studies in Europe. So far, negative prices in Energy have been shrugged off due to “extraordinary circumstances”. Is this the “transitory” discussion of 2021/2022 in reverse?
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Labor Watch – Hairdressers and cleaning ladies are holding the labor market above water
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
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Out of the Box #5 – Will the hiring cycle end due to falling inflation?
The hiring cycle has thrived due to a substantial depletion of the inflation-adjusted price of labour in 2021-2022, which may lead to a firing spree once inflation starts to come down and real wages start to go up. Will the labor market finally cave in due to falling inflation?
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Wage Watch: Wage negotiations in Germany to taint the disinflationary picture?
With German CPI being released today we have taken a deeper look into the wage negotiations in Germany, which might give a hint to how inflation dynamics will evolve in the future. Follow along in this short piece!
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Wage Watch: The recession without job losses – 7 charts on US employment
Some have labeled 2022 a “white collar recession” as the job market has remained stable throughout. Are there early signs of weakening in US labor markets? And what would be the consequences? We look at 7 charts here.
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Europe Wants To Get Paid – 5 Feuds To Look Out For
A gap has opened between European wages and prices over the past 12 months. This naturally leads to heightened expectation for collective bargaining agreements across the continent. We point you to the most important battlegrounds for 2023
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Spending Watch – The consumer is back
After an outright terrible end to 2022 for consumer spending, 2023 has started off on a better note. Is the consumer spending back? And what are the driving forces behind the consumption comeback in case?
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5 things we watch: The cyclical upswing, energy inventories, the BoJ governor, higher for longer and the consumer
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
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Steno Signals #20 – NO soft landing unless central banks admit to disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
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