The Drill: Strap in for Trump
We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position. To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan. Already a member? Login...
Macro Nugget: It’s the 2021 manufacturing cycle all over again
Philly non-manufacturing is slowing, while manufacturing is booming. Are we witnessing the end of the inventory cycle, with manufacturing now starting to produce at the level of underlying demand rather than at a reduced pace to deplete inventories?
Macro Nugget: China is deindustrializing Germany
China has now surpassed Germany in terms of vehicle trade between Germany and itself. That underlines the importance of next month’s election in Germany. If Germany (And EU for that matter) doesn’t develop its own industrial policy then China is...
Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again. To read the full...
Growth Watch: Philly Fed data through the roof! Here is how to trade it!
On the back of an uber-bullish Philly Fed Manufacturing print, we take a look at the sensitivities of assets to a boom in the manufacturing economy. To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan....
Macro Nugget: Housing backlogs back to pre-pandemic levels
U.S. housing backlogs from the pandemic have now returned to pre-pandemic levels. Along with massive spending driven by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the AI boom, these factors have helped sustain construction payrolls, preventing significant declines....
The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?
We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak. To read the full...
Macro Nugget: More pressure for the BoJ to hike
Wages and rising US yield will put pressure on the BoJ To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan. Already a member? Login...
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